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Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
Short-term assumptions for copper, aluminium, nickel, zinc, iron ore and hard coking coal have been cut, reflecting lower current prices and increasing uncertainties over short-term demand. At the same time short- and medium-term assumptions for thermal coal have been raised reflecting increased demand due to the energy crisis in Europe.
Our reduced copper assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect a global economic slowdown and expectations of weaker demand in the short term compared with supply prospects, which we anticipate to lead to a small surplus in 2023, although the market is likely to remain tight. We expect small demand increases in China in 2022-2023 due to periodic lockdowns and a decline in the country’s construction sector, while consumption growth in other regions is only marginally higher than that in China. Nevertheless, medium-term prospects remain solid due to the energy transition accounting for 50% of growth in global copper demand anticipated over the next five years. Our medium- and long-term assumptions therefore remain unchanged.
We have cut the 2022 iron ore and coking coal price assumptions reflecting ytd pricing on lower steel demand, particularly in China, which leads to steel production curtailments and lower demand for steelmaking inputs, falling steel producers’ margins and build-up of iron ore inventories. At the same time, met coal supply has improved as Australian production recovered and Russian producers redirected some of their output from Europe to Asia. However, the market prices for met coal have bottomed out, while some hard coking coal producers started diverting sales to the thermal coal market, which benefits from high demand and pricing. However, our medium- and long-term views of the iron ore and met coal markets remain unchanged.
The lowered aluminium assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect changing market sentiments that lead to reduced prices in the short term, while market fundamentals and our longer-term assumptions are unchanged. Lower demand, particularly due to weaknesses of the Chinese construction market, will weigh on aluminium prices in the short term. However, rising energy prices could turn production in many markets loss-making, leading to curtailment and shoring up prices from further decline.
We have reduced zinc assumptions for 2022-2023 as inflationary and recessionary pressures and energy issues weigh on demand, while mine production remains flat, leading to market surpluses in the short term. However, price-elastic supply should support market rebalancing in the medium term.
All gold price assumptions remain unchanged, reflecting the metal’s ‘safe haven’ investment status amid high geopolitical instability and inflationary pressures. The market price has been moderating during most of 2022 in line with our expectations of interest-rate hikes, while the strong US dollar will continue pushing the price down. We expect gold prices to moderate in the longer term once geopolitical risks abate and as the interest-rate hiking cycle continues.
Our increased 2022-2025 assumptions for both thermal coal price benchmarks reflect strong demand, particularly from China, against the backdrop of higher energy prices, particular high European gas prices, leading to increased reliance on coal-powered energy generation. The increased price assumptions for 2024-2025 also incorporate higher coal mining costs and limited expected new capacity in the main producing countries. However, our long-term assumptions remain unchanged as consumption in China should gradually decline.
We have cut our nickel price assumption for 2022 reflecting subdued demand from the stainless steel sector, while production levels remain healthy, particularly in Russia and Indonesia. However, long-term demand from electric vehicle production should support longer-term prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 02 September 22
ABM INVESTAMA BUYS 30% GEMS SHARES FOR US$ 420 MILLION
PT ABM Investama Tbk through its indirect subsidiary, bought a 30% stake in the PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk for US$ 420 million or around Rp 6.2 tri ...
Wednesday, 31 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Scorching temperatures and extremely dry conditions during the Northern hemisphere summer have been drying crops. Yield prospects have subsided in ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
HIGH COAL PRICES COULD BOOST INDONESIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Global coal prices have reached an all-time high as countries stop purchasing Russian coal amidst the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Indonesian coal comp ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
A COMBINED US$6.8-BILLION CASH BALANCE OF INDONESIAN COAL COMPANIES COULD PROVIDE FOR TIMELY INVESTMENTS IN GREEN TRANSITION - IEEFA
A combined US$6.8-billion cash balance of Indonesian coal companies could provide for timely investments in green transition
The opp ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
SHIPPING INDUSTRY TO REMOVE THE INDIAN OCEAN HIGH RISK AREA - BIMCO
After more than a decade of effective threat-reducing counter-piracy operations the shipping industry has removed the ‘Indian Ocean High Risk ...
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The University of Queensland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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