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Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
Short-term assumptions for copper, aluminium, nickel, zinc, iron ore and hard coking coal have been cut, reflecting lower current prices and increasing uncertainties over short-term demand. At the same time short- and medium-term assumptions for thermal coal have been raised reflecting increased demand due to the energy crisis in Europe.
Our reduced copper assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect a global economic slowdown and expectations of weaker demand in the short term compared with supply prospects, which we anticipate to lead to a small surplus in 2023, although the market is likely to remain tight. We expect small demand increases in China in 2022-2023 due to periodic lockdowns and a decline in the country’s construction sector, while consumption growth in other regions is only marginally higher than that in China. Nevertheless, medium-term prospects remain solid due to the energy transition accounting for 50% of growth in global copper demand anticipated over the next five years. Our medium- and long-term assumptions therefore remain unchanged.
We have cut the 2022 iron ore and coking coal price assumptions reflecting ytd pricing on lower steel demand, particularly in China, which leads to steel production curtailments and lower demand for steelmaking inputs, falling steel producers’ margins and build-up of iron ore inventories. At the same time, met coal supply has improved as Australian production recovered and Russian producers redirected some of their output from Europe to Asia. However, the market prices for met coal have bottomed out, while some hard coking coal producers started diverting sales to the thermal coal market, which benefits from high demand and pricing. However, our medium- and long-term views of the iron ore and met coal markets remain unchanged.
The lowered aluminium assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect changing market sentiments that lead to reduced prices in the short term, while market fundamentals and our longer-term assumptions are unchanged. Lower demand, particularly due to weaknesses of the Chinese construction market, will weigh on aluminium prices in the short term. However, rising energy prices could turn production in many markets loss-making, leading to curtailment and shoring up prices from further decline.
We have reduced zinc assumptions for 2022-2023 as inflationary and recessionary pressures and energy issues weigh on demand, while mine production remains flat, leading to market surpluses in the short term. However, price-elastic supply should support market rebalancing in the medium term.
All gold price assumptions remain unchanged, reflecting the metal’s ‘safe haven’ investment status amid high geopolitical instability and inflationary pressures. The market price has been moderating during most of 2022 in line with our expectations of interest-rate hikes, while the strong US dollar will continue pushing the price down. We expect gold prices to moderate in the longer term once geopolitical risks abate and as the interest-rate hiking cycle continues.
Our increased 2022-2025 assumptions for both thermal coal price benchmarks reflect strong demand, particularly from China, against the backdrop of higher energy prices, particular high European gas prices, leading to increased reliance on coal-powered energy generation. The increased price assumptions for 2024-2025 also incorporate higher coal mining costs and limited expected new capacity in the main producing countries. However, our long-term assumptions remain unchanged as consumption in China should gradually decline.
We have cut our nickel price assumption for 2022 reflecting subdued demand from the stainless steel sector, while production levels remain healthy, particularly in Russia and Indonesia. However, long-term demand from electric vehicle production should support longer-term prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 09 September 22
GREECE WILL KEEP COAL-FIRED PLANTS RUNNING FOR LONGER AMID GAS CRISIS - REUTERS
Greece will keep seven coal-fired plants running for longer than previously planned as European countries adjust to a cut in gas flows coming from ...
Friday, 09 September 22
CHINA'S DROUGHT INTENSIFIES GLOBAL COAL SHORTAGE - REUTERS
China’s drought has sent coal prices surging as traders anticipate the lack of hydroelectric generation will force it to burn more coal to me ...
Thursday, 08 September 22
MOODY.S AFFIRMS ABM INVESTAMA'S B1 RATINGS FOLLOWING PLANNED MINORITY INVESTMENT IN COAL MINER; OUTLOOK STABLE
Moody's Investors Service has affirmed ABM Investama Tbk (P.T.)'s B1 corporate family rating (CFR), along with the B1 rating on its senior ...
Thursday, 08 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While the energy markets are historically stretched, Russian flows of crude oil are closely monitored as the oil trade is ultimately realigned. Mor ...
Friday, 02 September 22
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE SLIPS SLIGHTLY IN SEPTEMBER 2022
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for September delivery drops 0.74 per cent month on month.
The Indonesian Coal Price R ...
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
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