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Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
Short-term assumptions for copper, aluminium, nickel, zinc, iron ore and hard coking coal have been cut, reflecting lower current prices and increasing uncertainties over short-term demand. At the same time short- and medium-term assumptions for thermal coal have been raised reflecting increased demand due to the energy crisis in Europe.
Our reduced copper assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect a global economic slowdown and expectations of weaker demand in the short term compared with supply prospects, which we anticipate to lead to a small surplus in 2023, although the market is likely to remain tight. We expect small demand increases in China in 2022-2023 due to periodic lockdowns and a decline in the country’s construction sector, while consumption growth in other regions is only marginally higher than that in China. Nevertheless, medium-term prospects remain solid due to the energy transition accounting for 50% of growth in global copper demand anticipated over the next five years. Our medium- and long-term assumptions therefore remain unchanged.
We have cut the 2022 iron ore and coking coal price assumptions reflecting ytd pricing on lower steel demand, particularly in China, which leads to steel production curtailments and lower demand for steelmaking inputs, falling steel producers’ margins and build-up of iron ore inventories. At the same time, met coal supply has improved as Australian production recovered and Russian producers redirected some of their output from Europe to Asia. However, the market prices for met coal have bottomed out, while some hard coking coal producers started diverting sales to the thermal coal market, which benefits from high demand and pricing. However, our medium- and long-term views of the iron ore and met coal markets remain unchanged.
The lowered aluminium assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect changing market sentiments that lead to reduced prices in the short term, while market fundamentals and our longer-term assumptions are unchanged. Lower demand, particularly due to weaknesses of the Chinese construction market, will weigh on aluminium prices in the short term. However, rising energy prices could turn production in many markets loss-making, leading to curtailment and shoring up prices from further decline.
We have reduced zinc assumptions for 2022-2023 as inflationary and recessionary pressures and energy issues weigh on demand, while mine production remains flat, leading to market surpluses in the short term. However, price-elastic supply should support market rebalancing in the medium term.
All gold price assumptions remain unchanged, reflecting the metal’s ‘safe haven’ investment status amid high geopolitical instability and inflationary pressures. The market price has been moderating during most of 2022 in line with our expectations of interest-rate hikes, while the strong US dollar will continue pushing the price down. We expect gold prices to moderate in the longer term once geopolitical risks abate and as the interest-rate hiking cycle continues.
Our increased 2022-2025 assumptions for both thermal coal price benchmarks reflect strong demand, particularly from China, against the backdrop of higher energy prices, particular high European gas prices, leading to increased reliance on coal-powered energy generation. The increased price assumptions for 2024-2025 also incorporate higher coal mining costs and limited expected new capacity in the main producing countries. However, our long-term assumptions remain unchanged as consumption in China should gradually decline.
We have cut our nickel price assumption for 2022 reflecting subdued demand from the stainless steel sector, while production levels remain healthy, particularly in Russia and Indonesia. However, long-term demand from electric vehicle production should support longer-term prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 31 October 22
U.S. COAL-FIRED GENERATION DECLINING AFTER BRIEF RISE LAST YEAR - EIA
We expect 6% less U.S. coal-fired generation in 2022 than in 2021, according to our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Although coal-fired ge ...
Monday, 31 October 22
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 12.3 PCT IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in September, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of ...
Wednesday, 26 October 22
BIMCO PUBLISHES UPDATED GENCON CONTRACT
BIMCO has published a revised and updated version GENCON 2022 – one of its flagship contracts within its portfolio of standard contracts for ...
Monday, 24 October 22
KOSPO TO INVITE 400,000 MT OF COAL FOR 3 YEARS
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an international tender for 400,000 MT of 3,800 - 4,400kcal/kg NCV and Sulfur Max 0 ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
ASIA COULD BE A BRIGHT SPOT AMID GLOBAL DOWNTURN NEXT YEAR, ECONOMISTS SAY - CNBC
Asia — especially Southeast Asia — remains a bright spot, even as the global economy looks set to head into recession next year, econom ...
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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