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Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
Short-term assumptions for copper, aluminium, nickel, zinc, iron ore and hard coking coal have been cut, reflecting lower current prices and increasing uncertainties over short-term demand. At the same time short- and medium-term assumptions for thermal coal have been raised reflecting increased demand due to the energy crisis in Europe.
Our reduced copper assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect a global economic slowdown and expectations of weaker demand in the short term compared with supply prospects, which we anticipate to lead to a small surplus in 2023, although the market is likely to remain tight. We expect small demand increases in China in 2022-2023 due to periodic lockdowns and a decline in the country’s construction sector, while consumption growth in other regions is only marginally higher than that in China. Nevertheless, medium-term prospects remain solid due to the energy transition accounting for 50% of growth in global copper demand anticipated over the next five years. Our medium- and long-term assumptions therefore remain unchanged.
We have cut the 2022 iron ore and coking coal price assumptions reflecting ytd pricing on lower steel demand, particularly in China, which leads to steel production curtailments and lower demand for steelmaking inputs, falling steel producers’ margins and build-up of iron ore inventories. At the same time, met coal supply has improved as Australian production recovered and Russian producers redirected some of their output from Europe to Asia. However, the market prices for met coal have bottomed out, while some hard coking coal producers started diverting sales to the thermal coal market, which benefits from high demand and pricing. However, our medium- and long-term views of the iron ore and met coal markets remain unchanged.
The lowered aluminium assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect changing market sentiments that lead to reduced prices in the short term, while market fundamentals and our longer-term assumptions are unchanged. Lower demand, particularly due to weaknesses of the Chinese construction market, will weigh on aluminium prices in the short term. However, rising energy prices could turn production in many markets loss-making, leading to curtailment and shoring up prices from further decline.
We have reduced zinc assumptions for 2022-2023 as inflationary and recessionary pressures and energy issues weigh on demand, while mine production remains flat, leading to market surpluses in the short term. However, price-elastic supply should support market rebalancing in the medium term.
All gold price assumptions remain unchanged, reflecting the metal’s ‘safe haven’ investment status amid high geopolitical instability and inflationary pressures. The market price has been moderating during most of 2022 in line with our expectations of interest-rate hikes, while the strong US dollar will continue pushing the price down. We expect gold prices to moderate in the longer term once geopolitical risks abate and as the interest-rate hiking cycle continues.
Our increased 2022-2025 assumptions for both thermal coal price benchmarks reflect strong demand, particularly from China, against the backdrop of higher energy prices, particular high European gas prices, leading to increased reliance on coal-powered energy generation. The increased price assumptions for 2024-2025 also incorporate higher coal mining costs and limited expected new capacity in the main producing countries. However, our long-term assumptions remain unchanged as consumption in China should gradually decline.
We have cut our nickel price assumption for 2022 reflecting subdued demand from the stainless steel sector, while production levels remain healthy, particularly in Russia and Indonesia. However, long-term demand from electric vehicle production should support longer-term prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 18 November 22
REALITIES OF LOI LIABILITIES - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The cargo misdelivery claim in Trafigura Maritime Logistics Pte Ltd v. Clearlake Shipping Pte Ltd (Miracle Hope) [2022] E ...
Tuesday, 15 November 22
CHINA SEES RISING COAL STORAGE AMID SUPPLY PUSH - XINHUA
Coal stockpiles at China’s power plants have seen considerable increases, ensuring energy supply for the winter, the country’s energy r ...
Tuesday, 15 November 22
SEABORNE THERMAL COAL PRICES START TO EASE, BUT PROCESS IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
Prices for seaborne thermal coal have started to drop as fears of a winter energy crunch ease, but the rate of decline has varied across the differ ...
Thursday, 10 November 22
INDIA: THERMAL PLANTS HAVE ADEQUATE COAL STOCKS AT 25.6 MILLION TONNES, SAYS GOVT - IANS
The coal stock with domestic dry fuel-based power plants, as on October 31, was 25.6 million tonnes, the government said, adding that the availabil ...
Tuesday, 08 November 22
OUTLOOK ON CHINA’S WEAKENED BASIC MATERIALS SECTOR CLOUDED BY POLICY SWINGS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects basic materials demand in China to improve qoq in 4Q22, driven by seasonally higher construction activity, solid infrastructu ...
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PTC India Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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