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Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
Short-term assumptions for copper, aluminium, nickel, zinc, iron ore and hard coking coal have been cut, reflecting lower current prices and increasing uncertainties over short-term demand. At the same time short- and medium-term assumptions for thermal coal have been raised reflecting increased demand due to the energy crisis in Europe.
Our reduced copper assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect a global economic slowdown and expectations of weaker demand in the short term compared with supply prospects, which we anticipate to lead to a small surplus in 2023, although the market is likely to remain tight. We expect small demand increases in China in 2022-2023 due to periodic lockdowns and a decline in the country’s construction sector, while consumption growth in other regions is only marginally higher than that in China. Nevertheless, medium-term prospects remain solid due to the energy transition accounting for 50% of growth in global copper demand anticipated over the next five years. Our medium- and long-term assumptions therefore remain unchanged.
We have cut the 2022 iron ore and coking coal price assumptions reflecting ytd pricing on lower steel demand, particularly in China, which leads to steel production curtailments and lower demand for steelmaking inputs, falling steel producers’ margins and build-up of iron ore inventories. At the same time, met coal supply has improved as Australian production recovered and Russian producers redirected some of their output from Europe to Asia. However, the market prices for met coal have bottomed out, while some hard coking coal producers started diverting sales to the thermal coal market, which benefits from high demand and pricing. However, our medium- and long-term views of the iron ore and met coal markets remain unchanged.
The lowered aluminium assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect changing market sentiments that lead to reduced prices in the short term, while market fundamentals and our longer-term assumptions are unchanged. Lower demand, particularly due to weaknesses of the Chinese construction market, will weigh on aluminium prices in the short term. However, rising energy prices could turn production in many markets loss-making, leading to curtailment and shoring up prices from further decline.
We have reduced zinc assumptions for 2022-2023 as inflationary and recessionary pressures and energy issues weigh on demand, while mine production remains flat, leading to market surpluses in the short term. However, price-elastic supply should support market rebalancing in the medium term.
All gold price assumptions remain unchanged, reflecting the metal’s ‘safe haven’ investment status amid high geopolitical instability and inflationary pressures. The market price has been moderating during most of 2022 in line with our expectations of interest-rate hikes, while the strong US dollar will continue pushing the price down. We expect gold prices to moderate in the longer term once geopolitical risks abate and as the interest-rate hiking cycle continues.
Our increased 2022-2025 assumptions for both thermal coal price benchmarks reflect strong demand, particularly from China, against the backdrop of higher energy prices, particular high European gas prices, leading to increased reliance on coal-powered energy generation. The increased price assumptions for 2024-2025 also incorporate higher coal mining costs and limited expected new capacity in the main producing countries. However, our long-term assumptions remain unchanged as consumption in China should gradually decline.
We have cut our nickel price assumption for 2022 reflecting subdued demand from the stainless steel sector, while production levels remain healthy, particularly in Russia and Indonesia. However, long-term demand from electric vehicle production should support longer-term prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 04 November 22
CHINA EXPANDS COAL TERM CONTRACTS TO ALL MINES TO STABILIZE MARKET - REUTERS
China has expanded long-term thermal coal supply contracts for 2023 to all coal mines and asked power utilities to source more of their demand thro ...
Thursday, 03 November 22
HANDYSIZE VALUES MOVING UP IN OCTOBER, WHILE LNG VALUES SKYROCKET - VESSELSVALUE
Handysize values have increased this month across most ages, following a period of decline. Values for generic 10 year old Handysizes have moved up ...
Thursday, 03 November 22
EUROPEAN GAS SUPPLY SURPLUS, NOVEMBER HBA DOWN TO US$ 308.2 PER TON - ESDM
European gas supply conditions have a major influence in determining fluctuations in the Reference Coal Price (HBA). The November 2022 HBA recorded ...
Wednesday, 02 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Only five weeks before western sanctions’ full effect, uncertainty over energy has markets and governments on the edge. What was initially th ...
Tuesday, 01 November 22
CHINA COAL TRADE DISRUPTED BY COVID OUTBREAKS AS WINTER LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s strict COVID-19 policy is constraining coal supplies and pushing up prices, industry officials and traders say, just weeks before the ...
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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