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Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
Short-term assumptions for copper, aluminium, nickel, zinc, iron ore and hard coking coal have been cut, reflecting lower current prices and increasing uncertainties over short-term demand. At the same time short- and medium-term assumptions for thermal coal have been raised reflecting increased demand due to the energy crisis in Europe.
Our reduced copper assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect a global economic slowdown and expectations of weaker demand in the short term compared with supply prospects, which we anticipate to lead to a small surplus in 2023, although the market is likely to remain tight. We expect small demand increases in China in 2022-2023 due to periodic lockdowns and a decline in the country’s construction sector, while consumption growth in other regions is only marginally higher than that in China. Nevertheless, medium-term prospects remain solid due to the energy transition accounting for 50% of growth in global copper demand anticipated over the next five years. Our medium- and long-term assumptions therefore remain unchanged.
We have cut the 2022 iron ore and coking coal price assumptions reflecting ytd pricing on lower steel demand, particularly in China, which leads to steel production curtailments and lower demand for steelmaking inputs, falling steel producers’ margins and build-up of iron ore inventories. At the same time, met coal supply has improved as Australian production recovered and Russian producers redirected some of their output from Europe to Asia. However, the market prices for met coal have bottomed out, while some hard coking coal producers started diverting sales to the thermal coal market, which benefits from high demand and pricing. However, our medium- and long-term views of the iron ore and met coal markets remain unchanged.
The lowered aluminium assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect changing market sentiments that lead to reduced prices in the short term, while market fundamentals and our longer-term assumptions are unchanged. Lower demand, particularly due to weaknesses of the Chinese construction market, will weigh on aluminium prices in the short term. However, rising energy prices could turn production in many markets loss-making, leading to curtailment and shoring up prices from further decline.
We have reduced zinc assumptions for 2022-2023 as inflationary and recessionary pressures and energy issues weigh on demand, while mine production remains flat, leading to market surpluses in the short term. However, price-elastic supply should support market rebalancing in the medium term.
All gold price assumptions remain unchanged, reflecting the metal’s ‘safe haven’ investment status amid high geopolitical instability and inflationary pressures. The market price has been moderating during most of 2022 in line with our expectations of interest-rate hikes, while the strong US dollar will continue pushing the price down. We expect gold prices to moderate in the longer term once geopolitical risks abate and as the interest-rate hiking cycle continues.
Our increased 2022-2025 assumptions for both thermal coal price benchmarks reflect strong demand, particularly from China, against the backdrop of higher energy prices, particular high European gas prices, leading to increased reliance on coal-powered energy generation. The increased price assumptions for 2024-2025 also incorporate higher coal mining costs and limited expected new capacity in the main producing countries. However, our long-term assumptions remain unchanged as consumption in China should gradually decline.
We have cut our nickel price assumption for 2022 reflecting subdued demand from the stainless steel sector, while production levels remain healthy, particularly in Russia and Indonesia. However, long-term demand from electric vehicle production should support longer-term prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 19 October 22
WHAT WILL THE GAS MARKET LOOK LIKE IN A NET ZERO WORLD? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The global gas and LNG market faces a number of ‘great unknowns’. With the market in turmoil uncertainty abounds – from the scale ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The LNG market remains extremely tight, and as a result adding further pressure on the vessel charter market, which is already stretched due to the ...
Sunday, 16 October 22
COULD A RETURN TO SHALE EXPLORATION BE PART OF THE SOLUTION TO EUROPE'S GAS SUPPLY PROBLEM? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The European gas market is in turmoil. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken things up, triggering a complete rethink of European energy st ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
THERMAL COAL PRICES RETREAT AS WINTER SUPPLY FEARS EASE - REUTERS
The prices of key thermal seaborne coal grades are retreating amid signs that supplies will be sufficient to meet winter demand in both Europe and ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
SPOT COAL BIDDING: CHINESE FIRM WANTS REVISED MECHANISM - BUSINESS RECORDER
Chinese company M/s Huaneng Shandong Ruyi (Pakistan) Energy Limited (HSR) has cautioned National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) that i ...
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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