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Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
Short-term assumptions for copper, aluminium, nickel, zinc, iron ore and hard coking coal have been cut, reflecting lower current prices and increasing uncertainties over short-term demand. At the same time short- and medium-term assumptions for thermal coal have been raised reflecting increased demand due to the energy crisis in Europe.
Our reduced copper assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect a global economic slowdown and expectations of weaker demand in the short term compared with supply prospects, which we anticipate to lead to a small surplus in 2023, although the market is likely to remain tight. We expect small demand increases in China in 2022-2023 due to periodic lockdowns and a decline in the country’s construction sector, while consumption growth in other regions is only marginally higher than that in China. Nevertheless, medium-term prospects remain solid due to the energy transition accounting for 50% of growth in global copper demand anticipated over the next five years. Our medium- and long-term assumptions therefore remain unchanged.
We have cut the 2022 iron ore and coking coal price assumptions reflecting ytd pricing on lower steel demand, particularly in China, which leads to steel production curtailments and lower demand for steelmaking inputs, falling steel producers’ margins and build-up of iron ore inventories. At the same time, met coal supply has improved as Australian production recovered and Russian producers redirected some of their output from Europe to Asia. However, the market prices for met coal have bottomed out, while some hard coking coal producers started diverting sales to the thermal coal market, which benefits from high demand and pricing. However, our medium- and long-term views of the iron ore and met coal markets remain unchanged.
The lowered aluminium assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect changing market sentiments that lead to reduced prices in the short term, while market fundamentals and our longer-term assumptions are unchanged. Lower demand, particularly due to weaknesses of the Chinese construction market, will weigh on aluminium prices in the short term. However, rising energy prices could turn production in many markets loss-making, leading to curtailment and shoring up prices from further decline.
We have reduced zinc assumptions for 2022-2023 as inflationary and recessionary pressures and energy issues weigh on demand, while mine production remains flat, leading to market surpluses in the short term. However, price-elastic supply should support market rebalancing in the medium term.
All gold price assumptions remain unchanged, reflecting the metal’s ‘safe haven’ investment status amid high geopolitical instability and inflationary pressures. The market price has been moderating during most of 2022 in line with our expectations of interest-rate hikes, while the strong US dollar will continue pushing the price down. We expect gold prices to moderate in the longer term once geopolitical risks abate and as the interest-rate hiking cycle continues.
Our increased 2022-2025 assumptions for both thermal coal price benchmarks reflect strong demand, particularly from China, against the backdrop of higher energy prices, particular high European gas prices, leading to increased reliance on coal-powered energy generation. The increased price assumptions for 2024-2025 also incorporate higher coal mining costs and limited expected new capacity in the main producing countries. However, our long-term assumptions remain unchanged as consumption in China should gradually decline.
We have cut our nickel price assumption for 2022 reflecting subdued demand from the stainless steel sector, while production levels remain healthy, particularly in Russia and Indonesia. However, long-term demand from electric vehicle production should support longer-term prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Planning Commission, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
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