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Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
Short-term assumptions for copper, aluminium, nickel, zinc, iron ore and hard coking coal have been cut, reflecting lower current prices and increasing uncertainties over short-term demand. At the same time short- and medium-term assumptions for thermal coal have been raised reflecting increased demand due to the energy crisis in Europe.
Our reduced copper assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect a global economic slowdown and expectations of weaker demand in the short term compared with supply prospects, which we anticipate to lead to a small surplus in 2023, although the market is likely to remain tight. We expect small demand increases in China in 2022-2023 due to periodic lockdowns and a decline in the country’s construction sector, while consumption growth in other regions is only marginally higher than that in China. Nevertheless, medium-term prospects remain solid due to the energy transition accounting for 50% of growth in global copper demand anticipated over the next five years. Our medium- and long-term assumptions therefore remain unchanged.
We have cut the 2022 iron ore and coking coal price assumptions reflecting ytd pricing on lower steel demand, particularly in China, which leads to steel production curtailments and lower demand for steelmaking inputs, falling steel producers’ margins and build-up of iron ore inventories. At the same time, met coal supply has improved as Australian production recovered and Russian producers redirected some of their output from Europe to Asia. However, the market prices for met coal have bottomed out, while some hard coking coal producers started diverting sales to the thermal coal market, which benefits from high demand and pricing. However, our medium- and long-term views of the iron ore and met coal markets remain unchanged.
The lowered aluminium assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect changing market sentiments that lead to reduced prices in the short term, while market fundamentals and our longer-term assumptions are unchanged. Lower demand, particularly due to weaknesses of the Chinese construction market, will weigh on aluminium prices in the short term. However, rising energy prices could turn production in many markets loss-making, leading to curtailment and shoring up prices from further decline.
We have reduced zinc assumptions for 2022-2023 as inflationary and recessionary pressures and energy issues weigh on demand, while mine production remains flat, leading to market surpluses in the short term. However, price-elastic supply should support market rebalancing in the medium term.
All gold price assumptions remain unchanged, reflecting the metal’s ‘safe haven’ investment status amid high geopolitical instability and inflationary pressures. The market price has been moderating during most of 2022 in line with our expectations of interest-rate hikes, while the strong US dollar will continue pushing the price down. We expect gold prices to moderate in the longer term once geopolitical risks abate and as the interest-rate hiking cycle continues.
Our increased 2022-2025 assumptions for both thermal coal price benchmarks reflect strong demand, particularly from China, against the backdrop of higher energy prices, particular high European gas prices, leading to increased reliance on coal-powered energy generation. The increased price assumptions for 2024-2025 also incorporate higher coal mining costs and limited expected new capacity in the main producing countries. However, our long-term assumptions remain unchanged as consumption in China should gradually decline.
We have cut our nickel price assumption for 2022 reflecting subdued demand from the stainless steel sector, while production levels remain healthy, particularly in Russia and Indonesia. However, long-term demand from electric vehicle production should support longer-term prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The University of Queensland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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