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Tuesday, 23 August 22
HIGH COAL PRICES COULD BOOST INDONESIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
 Global coal prices have reached an all-time high as countries stop purchasing Russian coal amidst the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Indonesian coal companies have become one of the biggest beneficiaries of this change, with eight companies reporting high realized coal prices, net profits and operating cash flows for 2021 and 1Q22.
These coal companies are not expanding coal capacity, with one or two exceptions, capital expenditure (capex) is mainly for maintenance and there are moves towards non-coal projects. The major exception is the dimethyl ether (DME) project announced by state-owned coal miner PTBA (Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam), but the projects face uncertain financial returns and funding as IEEFA reported in 2020.
In this report, IEEFA highlights that coal prices will likely stay elevated given conflict-induced changes to trade flows. Due to disruptions in shipping schedules, Korea and Japan are likely to buy less Russian coal and substitute with coal from Indonesia and Australia, hence coal prices are likely to stay high.
In the longer term, the new trade flows will likely require time to adjust even following conflict resolution. Therefore, coal prices will be supported during this adjustment process.
Moreover, even if China ends its unofficial ban on imports of Australian coal, it is unlikely to help ease supply pressure. This is because there are already existing buyers for Australian coal since the ban was implemented. Its higher prices could make it likely to be priced out of the Chinese market.
IEEFA’s deep dive into the Indonesian coal sector finds that the eight companies are not reinvesting into new coal capacity. However, two have plans to acquire a new mine (ABM Investama) or build up downstream capacity (PTBA), while taking the opportunity to repay debt.
While this is not surprising, considering the 185 global financial institutions which have clearly stated that they will no longer support coal or coal power plant financing, a lack of new coal supply may mean coal prices continue to stay elevated, putting the onus of energy transition on potential buyers.
In the event that there is conflict resolution, coupled with the EU’s commitment to decarbonize, coal prices are likely to normalize from current levels longer term. Coal companies should not miss the opportunity now to diversify away from coal before the cost to transition gets higher.
- Ghee Peh -
Ghee Peh
Ghee Peh is an energy finance analyst with a focus on the Asian coal industry and South East Asia. Ghee has worked on major mining IPOs in Hong Kong and Indonesia including coal, copper and gold companies and has a deep interest in commodity markets.
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Wednesday, 29 June 22
LNG MARKET REMAINS TIGHT - INTERMODAL
LNG market remains tight currently, mainly driven by the US LNG outage from the recent fire in Freeport LNG terminal together with the recent fall ...
Wednesday, 29 June 22
CHINA'S NEW PLAN FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT FOCUSES ON CONSUMPTION - FITCH RATINGS
China’s focus on consumption penetration for renewable energy development in its recently released 14th five-year plan – 2021 to 2025 & ...
Wednesday, 29 June 22
APAC CORPORATE SECTOR OUTLOOKS SHIFT AMID GLOBAL SHOCKS - FITCH RATINGS’
Fitch Ratings’ mid-2022 corporate sector outlook review revealed that the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region saw the largest number of sector outlook ...
Thursday, 16 June 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Picking up from my last insight in March, on the early days of the invasion, it's worth pointing out the way that the fast-paced working enviro ...
Saturday, 11 June 22
AIMTEK INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE AND AWARDS
Press Release: The prestigious AIMTEK International Conference and Awards concluded successfully on June 7th, 2022 at Radisson Blu, Yas Island Abu ...
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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