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Tuesday, 23 August 22
HIGH COAL PRICES COULD BOOST INDONESIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
 Global coal prices have reached an all-time high as countries stop purchasing Russian coal amidst the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Indonesian coal companies have become one of the biggest beneficiaries of this change, with eight companies reporting high realized coal prices, net profits and operating cash flows for 2021 and 1Q22.
These coal companies are not expanding coal capacity, with one or two exceptions, capital expenditure (capex) is mainly for maintenance and there are moves towards non-coal projects. The major exception is the dimethyl ether (DME) project announced by state-owned coal miner PTBA (Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam), but the projects face uncertain financial returns and funding as IEEFA reported in 2020.
In this report, IEEFA highlights that coal prices will likely stay elevated given conflict-induced changes to trade flows. Due to disruptions in shipping schedules, Korea and Japan are likely to buy less Russian coal and substitute with coal from Indonesia and Australia, hence coal prices are likely to stay high.
In the longer term, the new trade flows will likely require time to adjust even following conflict resolution. Therefore, coal prices will be supported during this adjustment process.
Moreover, even if China ends its unofficial ban on imports of Australian coal, it is unlikely to help ease supply pressure. This is because there are already existing buyers for Australian coal since the ban was implemented. Its higher prices could make it likely to be priced out of the Chinese market.
IEEFA’s deep dive into the Indonesian coal sector finds that the eight companies are not reinvesting into new coal capacity. However, two have plans to acquire a new mine (ABM Investama) or build up downstream capacity (PTBA), while taking the opportunity to repay debt.
While this is not surprising, considering the 185 global financial institutions which have clearly stated that they will no longer support coal or coal power plant financing, a lack of new coal supply may mean coal prices continue to stay elevated, putting the onus of energy transition on potential buyers.
In the event that there is conflict resolution, coupled with the EU’s commitment to decarbonize, coal prices are likely to normalize from current levels longer term. Coal companies should not miss the opportunity now to diversify away from coal before the cost to transition gets higher.
- Ghee Peh -
Ghee Peh
Ghee Peh is an energy finance analyst with a focus on the Asian coal industry and South East Asia. Ghee has worked on major mining IPOs in Hong Kong and Indonesia including coal, copper and gold companies and has a deep interest in commodity markets.
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Tuesday, 26 April 22
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS ARE SHIFTING, THERMAL MORE THAN COKING - REUTERS
India’s coal imports are starting to reflect shifting world trade and pricing dynamics in the wake of Russia’s invasion of neighbouring ...
Monday, 18 April 22
GERMAN COAL IMPORTERS EXPECT A BRIEF SPIKE IN PRICES ON EU BAN - REUTERS
A European Union embargo on Russian coal imports will push up prices in the short term before alternative supplies become available to steady the c ...
Monday, 18 April 22
FINNISH 'LOOPHOLES' ALLOW IMPORTS OF RUSSIAN COAL AND OIL TO CONTINUE - EURONEWS
Activists in Finland are calling for the government to clamp down faster on state-owned companies that continue to import raw materials from Russia ...
Monday, 18 April 22
GOVT IN DISCUSSION WITH WORLD BANK ON FRAMEWORK FOR COAL MINE CLOSURE - BUSINESS STANDARD
The coal ministry is in discussions with the World Bank for collaboration on the mine closure framework, a government official said on Wednesday.
...
Monday, 18 April 22
DEMAND FOR THERMAL COAL TO RISE DUE TO INCREASE IN ELECTRICITY DEMAND: INDIAN COAL MINISTRY - PTI
Coal block allocatees have a golden opportunity to augment production as the demand for thermal coal will rise due to an increase in electricity de ...
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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