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Tuesday, 23 August 22
HIGH COAL PRICES COULD BOOST INDONESIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
 Global coal prices have reached an all-time high as countries stop purchasing Russian coal amidst the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Indonesian coal companies have become one of the biggest beneficiaries of this change, with eight companies reporting high realized coal prices, net profits and operating cash flows for 2021 and 1Q22.
These coal companies are not expanding coal capacity, with one or two exceptions, capital expenditure (capex) is mainly for maintenance and there are moves towards non-coal projects. The major exception is the dimethyl ether (DME) project announced by state-owned coal miner PTBA (Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam), but the projects face uncertain financial returns and funding as IEEFA reported in 2020.
In this report, IEEFA highlights that coal prices will likely stay elevated given conflict-induced changes to trade flows. Due to disruptions in shipping schedules, Korea and Japan are likely to buy less Russian coal and substitute with coal from Indonesia and Australia, hence coal prices are likely to stay high.
In the longer term, the new trade flows will likely require time to adjust even following conflict resolution. Therefore, coal prices will be supported during this adjustment process.
Moreover, even if China ends its unofficial ban on imports of Australian coal, it is unlikely to help ease supply pressure. This is because there are already existing buyers for Australian coal since the ban was implemented. Its higher prices could make it likely to be priced out of the Chinese market.
IEEFA’s deep dive into the Indonesian coal sector finds that the eight companies are not reinvesting into new coal capacity. However, two have plans to acquire a new mine (ABM Investama) or build up downstream capacity (PTBA), while taking the opportunity to repay debt.
While this is not surprising, considering the 185 global financial institutions which have clearly stated that they will no longer support coal or coal power plant financing, a lack of new coal supply may mean coal prices continue to stay elevated, putting the onus of energy transition on potential buyers.
In the event that there is conflict resolution, coupled with the EU’s commitment to decarbonize, coal prices are likely to normalize from current levels longer term. Coal companies should not miss the opportunity now to diversify away from coal before the cost to transition gets higher.
- Ghee Peh -
Ghee Peh
Ghee Peh is an energy finance analyst with a focus on the Asian coal industry and South East Asia. Ghee has worked on major mining IPOs in Hong Kong and Indonesia including coal, copper and gold companies and has a deep interest in commodity markets.
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Thursday, 26 May 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The newbuilding market activity has been significantly positive from a dry bulk owner perspective during the first half of 2022. Indeed, the contra ...
Wednesday, 18 May 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE DROPPED 4.42% IN MAY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for May delivery drops 4.42 per cent month on month.
The Indonesian Coal Price Referen ...
Thursday, 12 May 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Almost through half of the year, the overall shipping market continues to show signs of healthiness, after plenty of festivities and holidays that ...
Wednesday, 27 April 22
EUROPEAN UNION'S LNG IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
In 2021, the European Union (27) was the third largest seaborne importer of LNG in the world, with a 15.8% share.
It followed Mainla ...
Tuesday, 26 April 22
CHINA'S APPETITE FOR BAUXITE HITS NEW RECORD AS Q1 IMPORTS JUMP 15.4% Y/Y - BIMCO
Bauxite shipments arriving in China hit new record levels in the first quarter of 2022 and grew at an average annual rate of 12.8% between 2017 and ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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