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Tuesday, 23 August 22
HIGH COAL PRICES COULD BOOST INDONESIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
 Global coal prices have reached an all-time high as countries stop purchasing Russian coal amidst the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Indonesian coal companies have become one of the biggest beneficiaries of this change, with eight companies reporting high realized coal prices, net profits and operating cash flows for 2021 and 1Q22.
These coal companies are not expanding coal capacity, with one or two exceptions, capital expenditure (capex) is mainly for maintenance and there are moves towards non-coal projects. The major exception is the dimethyl ether (DME) project announced by state-owned coal miner PTBA (Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam), but the projects face uncertain financial returns and funding as IEEFA reported in 2020.
In this report, IEEFA highlights that coal prices will likely stay elevated given conflict-induced changes to trade flows. Due to disruptions in shipping schedules, Korea and Japan are likely to buy less Russian coal and substitute with coal from Indonesia and Australia, hence coal prices are likely to stay high.
In the longer term, the new trade flows will likely require time to adjust even following conflict resolution. Therefore, coal prices will be supported during this adjustment process.
Moreover, even if China ends its unofficial ban on imports of Australian coal, it is unlikely to help ease supply pressure. This is because there are already existing buyers for Australian coal since the ban was implemented. Its higher prices could make it likely to be priced out of the Chinese market.
IEEFA’s deep dive into the Indonesian coal sector finds that the eight companies are not reinvesting into new coal capacity. However, two have plans to acquire a new mine (ABM Investama) or build up downstream capacity (PTBA), while taking the opportunity to repay debt.
While this is not surprising, considering the 185 global financial institutions which have clearly stated that they will no longer support coal or coal power plant financing, a lack of new coal supply may mean coal prices continue to stay elevated, putting the onus of energy transition on potential buyers.
In the event that there is conflict resolution, coupled with the EU’s commitment to decarbonize, coal prices are likely to normalize from current levels longer term. Coal companies should not miss the opportunity now to diversify away from coal before the cost to transition gets higher.
- Ghee Peh -
Ghee Peh
Ghee Peh is an energy finance analyst with a focus on the Asian coal industry and South East Asia. Ghee has worked on major mining IPOs in Hong Kong and Indonesia including coal, copper and gold companies and has a deep interest in commodity markets.
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Thursday, 30 June 22
WHY ARE LNG SHIPPING STOCKS RESILIENT? - DREWRY
LNG shipping stocks are proving resilient despite uncertainties about growth in global GDP, high inflation and the ongoing geopolitical crisis caus ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
SPOT AUSTRALIAN THERMAL COAL HAS SURGED, BUT CONTRACT PRICE IS KEY - REUTERS
The spot price of Australian thermal coal is higher than that of coking coal, an unprecedented situation that highlights just how the global market ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
SHANXI PROVINCE RAISES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT TO 1.3 BILLION TONS TO ENSURE CHINA’S ENERGY SUPPLY - GLOBAL TIMES
North China’s Shanxi Province, a major coal-producing region, recently announced a move to increase its annual coal production output by 107 ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
DIVERGENCE BETWEEN HIGH- AND LOW-GRADE THERMAL COAL PRICES IN APAC TO NARROW - FITCH RATINGS
Prices between high- and low-grade thermal coal in Asia-Pacific (APAC) have diverged since late March 2022, but Fitch Ratings expects the gap to na ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
INVESTMENT IN GLOBAL COAL SUPPLY CHAIN TO HIT $115 BN IN 2022, LED BY CHINA AND INDIA - BUSINESS LINE
At over $80 billion, China and India are anticipated to make up the bulk of global coal investment in 2022, says IEA.
The investment ...
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The University of Queensland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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