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Tuesday, 23 August 22
HIGH COAL PRICES COULD BOOST INDONESIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
 Global coal prices have reached an all-time high as countries stop purchasing Russian coal amidst the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Indonesian coal companies have become one of the biggest beneficiaries of this change, with eight companies reporting high realized coal prices, net profits and operating cash flows for 2021 and 1Q22.
These coal companies are not expanding coal capacity, with one or two exceptions, capital expenditure (capex) is mainly for maintenance and there are moves towards non-coal projects. The major exception is the dimethyl ether (DME) project announced by state-owned coal miner PTBA (Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam), but the projects face uncertain financial returns and funding as IEEFA reported in 2020.
In this report, IEEFA highlights that coal prices will likely stay elevated given conflict-induced changes to trade flows. Due to disruptions in shipping schedules, Korea and Japan are likely to buy less Russian coal and substitute with coal from Indonesia and Australia, hence coal prices are likely to stay high.
In the longer term, the new trade flows will likely require time to adjust even following conflict resolution. Therefore, coal prices will be supported during this adjustment process.
Moreover, even if China ends its unofficial ban on imports of Australian coal, it is unlikely to help ease supply pressure. This is because there are already existing buyers for Australian coal since the ban was implemented. Its higher prices could make it likely to be priced out of the Chinese market.
IEEFA’s deep dive into the Indonesian coal sector finds that the eight companies are not reinvesting into new coal capacity. However, two have plans to acquire a new mine (ABM Investama) or build up downstream capacity (PTBA), while taking the opportunity to repay debt.
While this is not surprising, considering the 185 global financial institutions which have clearly stated that they will no longer support coal or coal power plant financing, a lack of new coal supply may mean coal prices continue to stay elevated, putting the onus of energy transition on potential buyers.
In the event that there is conflict resolution, coupled with the EU’s commitment to decarbonize, coal prices are likely to normalize from current levels longer term. Coal companies should not miss the opportunity now to diversify away from coal before the cost to transition gets higher.
- Ghee Peh -
Ghee Peh
Ghee Peh is an energy finance analyst with a focus on the Asian coal industry and South East Asia. Ghee has worked on major mining IPOs in Hong Kong and Indonesia including coal, copper and gold companies and has a deep interest in commodity markets.
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Sunday, 03 July 22
CHINESE VICE PREMIER STRESSES CLEAN, EFFICIENT USE OF COAL - XINHUA
Chinese Vice Premier Han Zheng has stressed efforts to promote the clean and efficient use of coal, and pursue green, low-carbon and high-quality d ...
Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its g ...
Saturday, 02 July 22
GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL EXPORTS IN 2021 INCREASED BY 4.4% Y-O-Y TO 1147 MLN TONNES - BANCHERO COSTA
In the full 12 months of 2021, global seaborne coal exports increased by +4.4% y-o-y to 1147 mln tonnes, from 1099 mln tonnes in 2020, according to ...
Friday, 01 July 22
INDIA'S TOP CEMENT MAKER PAYING FOR RUSSIAN COAL IN CHINESE YUAN - REUTERS
India’s biggest cement producer, UltraTech Cement ULTC.NS, is importing a cargo of Russian coal and paying using Chinese yuan, according to a ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
FINANCIAL GAINS SUPPORT COAL TRANSITION - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Support for the shift away from coal dependency continues to mount, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) calculating that the move would gene ...
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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