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Tuesday, 23 August 22
HIGH COAL PRICES COULD BOOST INDONESIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
 Global coal prices have reached an all-time high as countries stop purchasing Russian coal amidst the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Indonesian coal companies have become one of the biggest beneficiaries of this change, with eight companies reporting high realized coal prices, net profits and operating cash flows for 2021 and 1Q22.
These coal companies are not expanding coal capacity, with one or two exceptions, capital expenditure (capex) is mainly for maintenance and there are moves towards non-coal projects. The major exception is the dimethyl ether (DME) project announced by state-owned coal miner PTBA (Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam), but the projects face uncertain financial returns and funding as IEEFA reported in 2020.
In this report, IEEFA highlights that coal prices will likely stay elevated given conflict-induced changes to trade flows. Due to disruptions in shipping schedules, Korea and Japan are likely to buy less Russian coal and substitute with coal from Indonesia and Australia, hence coal prices are likely to stay high.
In the longer term, the new trade flows will likely require time to adjust even following conflict resolution. Therefore, coal prices will be supported during this adjustment process.
Moreover, even if China ends its unofficial ban on imports of Australian coal, it is unlikely to help ease supply pressure. This is because there are already existing buyers for Australian coal since the ban was implemented. Its higher prices could make it likely to be priced out of the Chinese market.
IEEFA’s deep dive into the Indonesian coal sector finds that the eight companies are not reinvesting into new coal capacity. However, two have plans to acquire a new mine (ABM Investama) or build up downstream capacity (PTBA), while taking the opportunity to repay debt.
While this is not surprising, considering the 185 global financial institutions which have clearly stated that they will no longer support coal or coal power plant financing, a lack of new coal supply may mean coal prices continue to stay elevated, putting the onus of energy transition on potential buyers.
In the event that there is conflict resolution, coupled with the EU’s commitment to decarbonize, coal prices are likely to normalize from current levels longer term. Coal companies should not miss the opportunity now to diversify away from coal before the cost to transition gets higher.
- Ghee Peh -
Ghee Peh
Ghee Peh is an energy finance analyst with a focus on the Asian coal industry and South East Asia. Ghee has worked on major mining IPOs in Hong Kong and Indonesia including coal, copper and gold companies and has a deep interest in commodity markets.
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Friday, 08 July 22
AUSTRALIAN COAL PRICE BREAKS AGAIN LEVEL US$ 400/TON!, UP AROUND 4% - CNBC INDONESIA
Coal prices shot up again and crossed the level of US$ 400 per ton. On Thursday (7/7/2022) trading, the selling price of August contract closed at ...
Friday, 08 July 22
INDONESIA MULLS MORE FREQUENT SETTING OF CRUDE PALM OIL REFERENCE PRICE - REUTERS
Indonesia is considering setting its crude palm oil (CPO) export reference price every two weeks instead of monthly, a senior trade ministry offici ...
Friday, 08 July 22
BUNKER PRICES EXPECTED TO RECOVER LOST GROUND NEXT WEEK - SERGEY IVANOV, MABUX
Over the Week 27, the world bunker indices showed a sharp decline, primarily due to the fall in oil prices on July 05. The 380 HSFO index fell by 5 ...
Thursday, 07 July 22
NTPC MINES 61% MORE COAL AT 4.22 MN METRIC TONNES IN APRIL-JUNE: PTI
State-owned power giant NTPC on Tuesday said that its coal output grew by 61 per cent to Rs 42.40 lakh metric tonnes in April-June quarter from 26. ...
Thursday, 07 July 22
COAL INDIA'S PRODUCTION SETS RECORD INCREASE OF 29% YOY AT 36 MT IN Q1FY23 - IIFL SECURITIES
Coal India Limited (CIL) has ended April-June quarter FY’23 capping a historic high of 29% yoy output growth, compared to same quarter FY&rsq ...
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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