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Tuesday, 23 August 22
HIGH COAL PRICES COULD BOOST INDONESIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
 Global coal prices have reached an all-time high as countries stop purchasing Russian coal amidst the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Indonesian coal companies have become one of the biggest beneficiaries of this change, with eight companies reporting high realized coal prices, net profits and operating cash flows for 2021 and 1Q22.
These coal companies are not expanding coal capacity, with one or two exceptions, capital expenditure (capex) is mainly for maintenance and there are moves towards non-coal projects. The major exception is the dimethyl ether (DME) project announced by state-owned coal miner PTBA (Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam), but the projects face uncertain financial returns and funding as IEEFA reported in 2020.
In this report, IEEFA highlights that coal prices will likely stay elevated given conflict-induced changes to trade flows. Due to disruptions in shipping schedules, Korea and Japan are likely to buy less Russian coal and substitute with coal from Indonesia and Australia, hence coal prices are likely to stay high.
In the longer term, the new trade flows will likely require time to adjust even following conflict resolution. Therefore, coal prices will be supported during this adjustment process.
Moreover, even if China ends its unofficial ban on imports of Australian coal, it is unlikely to help ease supply pressure. This is because there are already existing buyers for Australian coal since the ban was implemented. Its higher prices could make it likely to be priced out of the Chinese market.
IEEFA’s deep dive into the Indonesian coal sector finds that the eight companies are not reinvesting into new coal capacity. However, two have plans to acquire a new mine (ABM Investama) or build up downstream capacity (PTBA), while taking the opportunity to repay debt.
While this is not surprising, considering the 185 global financial institutions which have clearly stated that they will no longer support coal or coal power plant financing, a lack of new coal supply may mean coal prices continue to stay elevated, putting the onus of energy transition on potential buyers.
In the event that there is conflict resolution, coupled with the EU’s commitment to decarbonize, coal prices are likely to normalize from current levels longer term. Coal companies should not miss the opportunity now to diversify away from coal before the cost to transition gets higher.
- Ghee Peh -
Ghee Peh
Ghee Peh is an energy finance analyst with a focus on the Asian coal industry and South East Asia. Ghee has worked on major mining IPOs in Hong Kong and Indonesia including coal, copper and gold companies and has a deep interest in commodity markets.
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Tuesday, 19 July 22
WHY SHIPPING MIGHT BE ABOUT TO GET A LITTLE BIT SLOWER - WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
If shipping is the beating heart of global trade, its pulse is about to get slower.
Faced with uncertainty about which fuels to use in the long ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
GERMANY'S INCREASED COAL, OIL USE WILL BE TEMPORARY, SCHOLZ SAYS - CNBC
Chancellor Olaf Scholz says Germany’s decision to reactivate coal and oil-fired power plants to relieve energy shortages because of the war i ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
INDONESIA REMOVES PALM OIL EXPORT LEVY UNTIL AUG. 31 - REUTERS
Indonesia has scrapped its export levy for all palm oil products until Aug. 31 in a fresh attempt to boost exports and ease high inventories, finan ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
CHINA'S JUNE DAILY COAL OUTPUT JUMPS ON PEAK SUMMER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in June rose 6.6 per cent from a month earlier as miners cranked up output ahead of peak summer temperatures, when ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
SEEING RED? - WOOD MACKENZIE
What a Republican mid-term victory could mean for US energy and climate policy
According to current polling the Republican Party has ...
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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