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Tuesday, 23 August 22
HIGH COAL PRICES COULD BOOST INDONESIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
 Global coal prices have reached an all-time high as countries stop purchasing Russian coal amidst the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Indonesian coal companies have become one of the biggest beneficiaries of this change, with eight companies reporting high realized coal prices, net profits and operating cash flows for 2021 and 1Q22.
These coal companies are not expanding coal capacity, with one or two exceptions, capital expenditure (capex) is mainly for maintenance and there are moves towards non-coal projects. The major exception is the dimethyl ether (DME) project announced by state-owned coal miner PTBA (Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam), but the projects face uncertain financial returns and funding as IEEFA reported in 2020.
In this report, IEEFA highlights that coal prices will likely stay elevated given conflict-induced changes to trade flows. Due to disruptions in shipping schedules, Korea and Japan are likely to buy less Russian coal and substitute with coal from Indonesia and Australia, hence coal prices are likely to stay high.
In the longer term, the new trade flows will likely require time to adjust even following conflict resolution. Therefore, coal prices will be supported during this adjustment process.
Moreover, even if China ends its unofficial ban on imports of Australian coal, it is unlikely to help ease supply pressure. This is because there are already existing buyers for Australian coal since the ban was implemented. Its higher prices could make it likely to be priced out of the Chinese market.
IEEFA’s deep dive into the Indonesian coal sector finds that the eight companies are not reinvesting into new coal capacity. However, two have plans to acquire a new mine (ABM Investama) or build up downstream capacity (PTBA), while taking the opportunity to repay debt.
While this is not surprising, considering the 185 global financial institutions which have clearly stated that they will no longer support coal or coal power plant financing, a lack of new coal supply may mean coal prices continue to stay elevated, putting the onus of energy transition on potential buyers.
In the event that there is conflict resolution, coupled with the EU’s commitment to decarbonize, coal prices are likely to normalize from current levels longer term. Coal companies should not miss the opportunity now to diversify away from coal before the cost to transition gets higher.
- Ghee Peh -
Ghee Peh
Ghee Peh is an energy finance analyst with a focus on the Asian coal industry and South East Asia. Ghee has worked on major mining IPOs in Hong Kong and Indonesia including coal, copper and gold companies and has a deep interest in commodity markets.
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Tuesday, 26 July 22
WILL SOUTH AMERICA’S WINTER DEMAND DRAW LNG CARGOES AWAY FROM EUROPE? - ICIS
South America is now in the middle of its winter demand season. Last year the region increased its share of global LNG imports in winter, with Braz ...
Monday, 25 July 22
GLOBAL 2021 COAL-FIRED ELECTRICITY GENERATION SURGES TO RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
By contrast, mine output was still fractionally below the record set between 2012 and 2014 because older and less efficient coal generators have be ...
Saturday, 23 July 22
THE EU HAS BEEN REDUCING IMPORTS OF RUSSIAN REFINED OIL PRODUCTS SINCE MARCH - BANCHERO COSTA
The European Union could now ban the import and transit of fuel oil from Russia around six months ahead of the planned deadline, an EU official and ...
Saturday, 23 July 22
INDONESIA CONSIDERING SCRAPPING DOMESTIC SALES RULE FOR PALM OIL EXPORTS - REUTERS
Indonesia is considering removing a domestic sales requirement for palm oil exports because high inventories of the vegetable oil have been holding ...
Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per da ...
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- The University of Queensland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PTC India Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Coal Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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