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Tuesday, 23 August 22
HIGH COAL PRICES COULD BOOST INDONESIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
 Global coal prices have reached an all-time high as countries stop purchasing Russian coal amidst the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Indonesian coal companies have become one of the biggest beneficiaries of this change, with eight companies reporting high realized coal prices, net profits and operating cash flows for 2021 and 1Q22.
These coal companies are not expanding coal capacity, with one or two exceptions, capital expenditure (capex) is mainly for maintenance and there are moves towards non-coal projects. The major exception is the dimethyl ether (DME) project announced by state-owned coal miner PTBA (Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam), but the projects face uncertain financial returns and funding as IEEFA reported in 2020.
In this report, IEEFA highlights that coal prices will likely stay elevated given conflict-induced changes to trade flows. Due to disruptions in shipping schedules, Korea and Japan are likely to buy less Russian coal and substitute with coal from Indonesia and Australia, hence coal prices are likely to stay high.
In the longer term, the new trade flows will likely require time to adjust even following conflict resolution. Therefore, coal prices will be supported during this adjustment process.
Moreover, even if China ends its unofficial ban on imports of Australian coal, it is unlikely to help ease supply pressure. This is because there are already existing buyers for Australian coal since the ban was implemented. Its higher prices could make it likely to be priced out of the Chinese market.
IEEFA’s deep dive into the Indonesian coal sector finds that the eight companies are not reinvesting into new coal capacity. However, two have plans to acquire a new mine (ABM Investama) or build up downstream capacity (PTBA), while taking the opportunity to repay debt.
While this is not surprising, considering the 185 global financial institutions which have clearly stated that they will no longer support coal or coal power plant financing, a lack of new coal supply may mean coal prices continue to stay elevated, putting the onus of energy transition on potential buyers.
In the event that there is conflict resolution, coupled with the EU’s commitment to decarbonize, coal prices are likely to normalize from current levels longer term. Coal companies should not miss the opportunity now to diversify away from coal before the cost to transition gets higher.
- Ghee Peh -
Ghee Peh
Ghee Peh is an energy finance analyst with a focus on the Asian coal industry and South East Asia. Ghee has worked on major mining IPOs in Hong Kong and Indonesia including coal, copper and gold companies and has a deep interest in commodity markets.
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Wednesday, 06 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the 3rd Decarbonizing Shipping Forum, held in Hamburg on June 2022, there has been a meaningful resurgence of discussions within the ship ...
Tuesday, 05 July 22
WHY ARE VLSFO PRICES SO HIGH, ESPECIALLY IN SINGAPORE? - STEVE CHRISTY, INTEGR8 FUELS
Tightness in products still trumps talks of recession
Last month we wrote about the fears of recession versus the tightness in product markets ...
Tuesday, 05 July 22
ADANI ENTERPRISES LOWEST BIDDER IN COAL INDIA'S IMPORT TENDER: REPORT - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India Ltd floated its first import tender on behalf of power companies, where Adani Enterprises Ltd came out to be the lowest bidder, a report ...
Tuesday, 05 July 22
CHINA POLICY KEY FOR IRON ORE OUTLOOK - ING
China’s covid lockdowns and recessionary risks hit iron ore
Iron ore prices have fallen significantly from their year-to-date high of US$ ...
Monday, 04 July 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SLIGHTLY DOWN IN JULY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for July delivery drops 1.52 per cent month on month.
The Indonesian Coal Price Refere ...
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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