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Tuesday, 23 August 22
HIGH COAL PRICES COULD BOOST INDONESIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
 Global coal prices have reached an all-time high as countries stop purchasing Russian coal amidst the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Indonesian coal companies have become one of the biggest beneficiaries of this change, with eight companies reporting high realized coal prices, net profits and operating cash flows for 2021 and 1Q22.
These coal companies are not expanding coal capacity, with one or two exceptions, capital expenditure (capex) is mainly for maintenance and there are moves towards non-coal projects. The major exception is the dimethyl ether (DME) project announced by state-owned coal miner PTBA (Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam), but the projects face uncertain financial returns and funding as IEEFA reported in 2020.
In this report, IEEFA highlights that coal prices will likely stay elevated given conflict-induced changes to trade flows. Due to disruptions in shipping schedules, Korea and Japan are likely to buy less Russian coal and substitute with coal from Indonesia and Australia, hence coal prices are likely to stay high.
In the longer term, the new trade flows will likely require time to adjust even following conflict resolution. Therefore, coal prices will be supported during this adjustment process.
Moreover, even if China ends its unofficial ban on imports of Australian coal, it is unlikely to help ease supply pressure. This is because there are already existing buyers for Australian coal since the ban was implemented. Its higher prices could make it likely to be priced out of the Chinese market.
IEEFA’s deep dive into the Indonesian coal sector finds that the eight companies are not reinvesting into new coal capacity. However, two have plans to acquire a new mine (ABM Investama) or build up downstream capacity (PTBA), while taking the opportunity to repay debt.
While this is not surprising, considering the 185 global financial institutions which have clearly stated that they will no longer support coal or coal power plant financing, a lack of new coal supply may mean coal prices continue to stay elevated, putting the onus of energy transition on potential buyers.
In the event that there is conflict resolution, coupled with the EU’s commitment to decarbonize, coal prices are likely to normalize from current levels longer term. Coal companies should not miss the opportunity now to diversify away from coal before the cost to transition gets higher.
- Ghee Peh -
Ghee Peh
Ghee Peh is an energy finance analyst with a focus on the Asian coal industry and South East Asia. Ghee has worked on major mining IPOs in Hong Kong and Indonesia including coal, copper and gold companies and has a deep interest in commodity markets.
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Tuesday, 20 September 22
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 8.1 PCT IN AUGUST - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in August, official data showed.
The country produced 370 million tonnes of ra ...
Monday, 19 September 22
BUMA AUSTRALIA AWARDED A$400 MILLION CONTRACT EXTENSION BY BMA FOR GOONYELLA PROJECT
Press Release – PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. (the "Company") announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
CHINA WARNS COAL COMPANIES AGAINST DUAL CONTRACTS, KEEP PRICES STABLE - REUTERS
China’s state economic planner warned coal companies operating at ports in the Bohai Bay region to comply with their long-term contracts to k ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has i ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
...
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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