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Tuesday, 23 August 22
HIGH COAL PRICES COULD BOOST INDONESIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
 Global coal prices have reached an all-time high as countries stop purchasing Russian coal amidst the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Indonesian coal companies have become one of the biggest beneficiaries of this change, with eight companies reporting high realized coal prices, net profits and operating cash flows for 2021 and 1Q22.
These coal companies are not expanding coal capacity, with one or two exceptions, capital expenditure (capex) is mainly for maintenance and there are moves towards non-coal projects. The major exception is the dimethyl ether (DME) project announced by state-owned coal miner PTBA (Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam), but the projects face uncertain financial returns and funding as IEEFA reported in 2020.
In this report, IEEFA highlights that coal prices will likely stay elevated given conflict-induced changes to trade flows. Due to disruptions in shipping schedules, Korea and Japan are likely to buy less Russian coal and substitute with coal from Indonesia and Australia, hence coal prices are likely to stay high.
In the longer term, the new trade flows will likely require time to adjust even following conflict resolution. Therefore, coal prices will be supported during this adjustment process.
Moreover, even if China ends its unofficial ban on imports of Australian coal, it is unlikely to help ease supply pressure. This is because there are already existing buyers for Australian coal since the ban was implemented. Its higher prices could make it likely to be priced out of the Chinese market.
IEEFA’s deep dive into the Indonesian coal sector finds that the eight companies are not reinvesting into new coal capacity. However, two have plans to acquire a new mine (ABM Investama) or build up downstream capacity (PTBA), while taking the opportunity to repay debt.
While this is not surprising, considering the 185 global financial institutions which have clearly stated that they will no longer support coal or coal power plant financing, a lack of new coal supply may mean coal prices continue to stay elevated, putting the onus of energy transition on potential buyers.
In the event that there is conflict resolution, coupled with the EU’s commitment to decarbonize, coal prices are likely to normalize from current levels longer term. Coal companies should not miss the opportunity now to diversify away from coal before the cost to transition gets higher.
- Ghee Peh -
Ghee Peh
Ghee Peh is an energy finance analyst with a focus on the Asian coal industry and South East Asia. Ghee has worked on major mining IPOs in Hong Kong and Indonesia including coal, copper and gold companies and has a deep interest in commodity markets.
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Tuesday, 20 September 22
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 8.1 PCT IN AUGUST - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in August, official data showed.
The country produced 370 million tonnes of ra ...
Monday, 19 September 22
BUMA AUSTRALIA AWARDED A$400 MILLION CONTRACT EXTENSION BY BMA FOR GOONYELLA PROJECT
Press Release – PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. (the "Company") announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
CHINA WARNS COAL COMPANIES AGAINST DUAL CONTRACTS, KEEP PRICES STABLE - REUTERS
China’s state economic planner warned coal companies operating at ports in the Bohai Bay region to comply with their long-term contracts to k ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has i ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
...
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Coal Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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