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Tuesday, 23 August 22
HIGH COAL PRICES COULD BOOST INDONESIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
 Global coal prices have reached an all-time high as countries stop purchasing Russian coal amidst the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Indonesian coal companies have become one of the biggest beneficiaries of this change, with eight companies reporting high realized coal prices, net profits and operating cash flows for 2021 and 1Q22.
These coal companies are not expanding coal capacity, with one or two exceptions, capital expenditure (capex) is mainly for maintenance and there are moves towards non-coal projects. The major exception is the dimethyl ether (DME) project announced by state-owned coal miner PTBA (Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam), but the projects face uncertain financial returns and funding as IEEFA reported in 2020.
In this report, IEEFA highlights that coal prices will likely stay elevated given conflict-induced changes to trade flows. Due to disruptions in shipping schedules, Korea and Japan are likely to buy less Russian coal and substitute with coal from Indonesia and Australia, hence coal prices are likely to stay high.
In the longer term, the new trade flows will likely require time to adjust even following conflict resolution. Therefore, coal prices will be supported during this adjustment process.
Moreover, even if China ends its unofficial ban on imports of Australian coal, it is unlikely to help ease supply pressure. This is because there are already existing buyers for Australian coal since the ban was implemented. Its higher prices could make it likely to be priced out of the Chinese market.
IEEFA’s deep dive into the Indonesian coal sector finds that the eight companies are not reinvesting into new coal capacity. However, two have plans to acquire a new mine (ABM Investama) or build up downstream capacity (PTBA), while taking the opportunity to repay debt.
While this is not surprising, considering the 185 global financial institutions which have clearly stated that they will no longer support coal or coal power plant financing, a lack of new coal supply may mean coal prices continue to stay elevated, putting the onus of energy transition on potential buyers.
In the event that there is conflict resolution, coupled with the EU’s commitment to decarbonize, coal prices are likely to normalize from current levels longer term. Coal companies should not miss the opportunity now to diversify away from coal before the cost to transition gets higher.
- Ghee Peh -
Ghee Peh
Ghee Peh is an energy finance analyst with a focus on the Asian coal industry and South East Asia. Ghee has worked on major mining IPOs in Hong Kong and Indonesia including coal, copper and gold companies and has a deep interest in commodity markets.
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Friday, 16 September 22
WHEN IS A VESSEL'S INCOME EARNING CAPACITY AT RISK? 'CONTROLLED INCOME CAN BE A KEY OF SUCCESS' - MARASCO MARINE
Managing marine risks is not an easy task, which requires special knowledge and expertise on the subject per se. Customarily, big ship management c ...
Friday, 16 September 22
DRY BULK MARKET: EU’S BAN ON RUSSIAN COAL LIFTS DEMAND DESPITE ECONOMIC HEADWINDS - BIMCO
Highlights
– The Baltic Exchange Dry Index (BDI) peaked in late May and has since fallen sharply as lower Chinese demand and adverse glob ...
Friday, 16 September 22
BIMCO EMBARKS ON NEW STANDARD FOR “QUIET ENJOYMENT”
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A newly set-up BIMCO drafting team involving a cross-section of shipowners, charterers, financing and leasing i ...
Friday, 16 September 22
INDIAN COAL PRODUCTION TO RISE 150 PER CENT IN 10 YEARS: CENTRE - EXPRESS NEWS SERVICE
The Union Ministry of Mines is expecting 150 per cent growth in coal production 10 years down the line as a result of coal reforms that had been us ...
Thursday, 15 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies agreed on a 100,000 b/d output cut last week, oil flows are in the spotlight ...
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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