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Tuesday, 23 August 22
HIGH COAL PRICES COULD BOOST INDONESIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
 Global coal prices have reached an all-time high as countries stop purchasing Russian coal amidst the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Indonesian coal companies have become one of the biggest beneficiaries of this change, with eight companies reporting high realized coal prices, net profits and operating cash flows for 2021 and 1Q22.
These coal companies are not expanding coal capacity, with one or two exceptions, capital expenditure (capex) is mainly for maintenance and there are moves towards non-coal projects. The major exception is the dimethyl ether (DME) project announced by state-owned coal miner PTBA (Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam), but the projects face uncertain financial returns and funding as IEEFA reported in 2020.
In this report, IEEFA highlights that coal prices will likely stay elevated given conflict-induced changes to trade flows. Due to disruptions in shipping schedules, Korea and Japan are likely to buy less Russian coal and substitute with coal from Indonesia and Australia, hence coal prices are likely to stay high.
In the longer term, the new trade flows will likely require time to adjust even following conflict resolution. Therefore, coal prices will be supported during this adjustment process.
Moreover, even if China ends its unofficial ban on imports of Australian coal, it is unlikely to help ease supply pressure. This is because there are already existing buyers for Australian coal since the ban was implemented. Its higher prices could make it likely to be priced out of the Chinese market.
IEEFA’s deep dive into the Indonesian coal sector finds that the eight companies are not reinvesting into new coal capacity. However, two have plans to acquire a new mine (ABM Investama) or build up downstream capacity (PTBA), while taking the opportunity to repay debt.
While this is not surprising, considering the 185 global financial institutions which have clearly stated that they will no longer support coal or coal power plant financing, a lack of new coal supply may mean coal prices continue to stay elevated, putting the onus of energy transition on potential buyers.
In the event that there is conflict resolution, coupled with the EU’s commitment to decarbonize, coal prices are likely to normalize from current levels longer term. Coal companies should not miss the opportunity now to diversify away from coal before the cost to transition gets higher.
- Ghee Peh -
Ghee Peh
Ghee Peh is an energy finance analyst with a focus on the Asian coal industry and South East Asia. Ghee has worked on major mining IPOs in Hong Kong and Indonesia including coal, copper and gold companies and has a deep interest in commodity markets.
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Monday, 12 September 22
COAL PRICE HIKE REMAINS DIFFICULT FOR CIL: CHAIRMAN TELLS ANALYSTS - PTI
Coal India on Thursday informed investors that increasing coal prices remains difficult in the current context when the economy is grappling with h ...
Friday, 09 September 22
GREECE WILL KEEP COAL-FIRED PLANTS RUNNING FOR LONGER AMID GAS CRISIS - REUTERS
Greece will keep seven coal-fired plants running for longer than previously planned as European countries adjust to a cut in gas flows coming from ...
Friday, 09 September 22
CHINA'S DROUGHT INTENSIFIES GLOBAL COAL SHORTAGE - REUTERS
China’s drought has sent coal prices surging as traders anticipate the lack of hydroelectric generation will force it to burn more coal to me ...
Thursday, 08 September 22
MOODY.S AFFIRMS ABM INVESTAMA'S B1 RATINGS FOLLOWING PLANNED MINORITY INVESTMENT IN COAL MINER; OUTLOOK STABLE
Moody's Investors Service has affirmed ABM Investama Tbk (P.T.)'s B1 corporate family rating (CFR), along with the B1 rating on its senior ...
Thursday, 08 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While the energy markets are historically stretched, Russian flows of crude oil are closely monitored as the oil trade is ultimately realigned. Mor ...
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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