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Tuesday, 23 August 22
HIGH COAL PRICES COULD BOOST INDONESIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
 Global coal prices have reached an all-time high as countries stop purchasing Russian coal amidst the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Indonesian coal companies have become one of the biggest beneficiaries of this change, with eight companies reporting high realized coal prices, net profits and operating cash flows for 2021 and 1Q22.
These coal companies are not expanding coal capacity, with one or two exceptions, capital expenditure (capex) is mainly for maintenance and there are moves towards non-coal projects. The major exception is the dimethyl ether (DME) project announced by state-owned coal miner PTBA (Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam), but the projects face uncertain financial returns and funding as IEEFA reported in 2020.
In this report, IEEFA highlights that coal prices will likely stay elevated given conflict-induced changes to trade flows. Due to disruptions in shipping schedules, Korea and Japan are likely to buy less Russian coal and substitute with coal from Indonesia and Australia, hence coal prices are likely to stay high.
In the longer term, the new trade flows will likely require time to adjust even following conflict resolution. Therefore, coal prices will be supported during this adjustment process.
Moreover, even if China ends its unofficial ban on imports of Australian coal, it is unlikely to help ease supply pressure. This is because there are already existing buyers for Australian coal since the ban was implemented. Its higher prices could make it likely to be priced out of the Chinese market.
IEEFA’s deep dive into the Indonesian coal sector finds that the eight companies are not reinvesting into new coal capacity. However, two have plans to acquire a new mine (ABM Investama) or build up downstream capacity (PTBA), while taking the opportunity to repay debt.
While this is not surprising, considering the 185 global financial institutions which have clearly stated that they will no longer support coal or coal power plant financing, a lack of new coal supply may mean coal prices continue to stay elevated, putting the onus of energy transition on potential buyers.
In the event that there is conflict resolution, coupled with the EU’s commitment to decarbonize, coal prices are likely to normalize from current levels longer term. Coal companies should not miss the opportunity now to diversify away from coal before the cost to transition gets higher.
- Ghee Peh -
Ghee Peh
Ghee Peh is an energy finance analyst with a focus on the Asian coal industry and South East Asia. Ghee has worked on major mining IPOs in Hong Kong and Indonesia including coal, copper and gold companies and has a deep interest in commodity markets.
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Friday, 23 September 22
CHINA DIGS DEEP TO RAISE COAL OUTPUT TO RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal production has surged this year as the government seeks to improve energy security by reducing dependence on imports and amassin ...
Friday, 23 September 22
EUROPEAN STEEL BUYERS SEEK DIRECTION IN VOLATILE MARKET - MEPS INTERNATIONAL
Demand for steel is slow to recover, after the summer break. Mill production costs continue to increase. Steel purchasers are uncertain about the f ...
Friday, 23 September 22
BUOYANT COAL INDUSTRY SEEKS WAYS TO STAY IN THE LONG-TERM ENERGY MIX - REUTERS
There’s no doubt that the global coal industry has been a major beneficiary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent energy c ...
Friday, 23 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In view of the forthcoming winter, Europe is trying to escape from its energy (oil & gas) dependency from Russia to ensure energy abundance eve ...
Tuesday, 20 September 22
CHINA'S DAILY COAL OUTPUT HITS 3-MONTH LOW IN AUGUST ON RAINS, COVID CURBS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in August slipped to a three-month low as some mines in its biggest coal mining regions reduced operations or even ...
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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