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Tuesday, 23 August 22
HIGH COAL PRICES COULD BOOST INDONESIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
 Global coal prices have reached an all-time high as countries stop purchasing Russian coal amidst the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Indonesian coal companies have become one of the biggest beneficiaries of this change, with eight companies reporting high realized coal prices, net profits and operating cash flows for 2021 and 1Q22.
These coal companies are not expanding coal capacity, with one or two exceptions, capital expenditure (capex) is mainly for maintenance and there are moves towards non-coal projects. The major exception is the dimethyl ether (DME) project announced by state-owned coal miner PTBA (Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam), but the projects face uncertain financial returns and funding as IEEFA reported in 2020.
In this report, IEEFA highlights that coal prices will likely stay elevated given conflict-induced changes to trade flows. Due to disruptions in shipping schedules, Korea and Japan are likely to buy less Russian coal and substitute with coal from Indonesia and Australia, hence coal prices are likely to stay high.
In the longer term, the new trade flows will likely require time to adjust even following conflict resolution. Therefore, coal prices will be supported during this adjustment process.
Moreover, even if China ends its unofficial ban on imports of Australian coal, it is unlikely to help ease supply pressure. This is because there are already existing buyers for Australian coal since the ban was implemented. Its higher prices could make it likely to be priced out of the Chinese market.
IEEFA’s deep dive into the Indonesian coal sector finds that the eight companies are not reinvesting into new coal capacity. However, two have plans to acquire a new mine (ABM Investama) or build up downstream capacity (PTBA), while taking the opportunity to repay debt.
While this is not surprising, considering the 185 global financial institutions which have clearly stated that they will no longer support coal or coal power plant financing, a lack of new coal supply may mean coal prices continue to stay elevated, putting the onus of energy transition on potential buyers.
In the event that there is conflict resolution, coupled with the EU’s commitment to decarbonize, coal prices are likely to normalize from current levels longer term. Coal companies should not miss the opportunity now to diversify away from coal before the cost to transition gets higher.
- Ghee Peh -
Ghee Peh
Ghee Peh is an energy finance analyst with a focus on the Asian coal industry and South East Asia. Ghee has worked on major mining IPOs in Hong Kong and Indonesia including coal, copper and gold companies and has a deep interest in commodity markets.
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Tuesday, 04 October 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SURGE AGAIN TO RECORD HIGH
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference reached another record high in October as Russia's war in Ukraine continues to spark a surge in c ...
Sunday, 02 October 22
MISC STRENGTHENS ITS PARTNERSHIP WITH SEARIVER MARITIME
MISC Berhad (MISC) today announced that its subsidiaries Polaris LNG Three Pte. Ltd. and Polaris LNG Four Pte. Ltd. have secured long-term time cha ...
Thursday, 29 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
This week, focus turns to the 38th APPEC Conference, where leading professionals from the global oil industry will discuss the future key drivers o ...
Thursday, 29 September 22
HIGH COAL PRICES REMAIN A CONCERN FOR DOMESTIC NON-FERROUS METAL COMPANIES - ICRA
According to ICRA on Monday, the high price of coal will have a negative effect on the profitability of domestic non-ferrous metal companies that m ...
Tuesday, 27 September 22
14% INCREASE IN EUROPEAN COAL DEMAND TO BE SHORT-TERM TREND - WOOD MACKENZIE
European seaborne thermal coal demand is projected to increase 14% or 12 million metric tonnes (Mt) this year to 98 Mt as it grapples with the curr ...
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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