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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 01 September 21
KOMIPO TO BUY 1.56 MILLION TONS OF 5600 NAR COAL OF AUSTRALIA OR SOUTH AFRICAN ORIGIN FOR 2022 - 2024
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) has issued an international tender for total 1,560,000 MT of Bituminous Coal to be used a ...
Wednesday, 01 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the summer season is coming to an end, the dry bulk market continues to rally. The confidence that the outstanding freight market performance ha ...
Monday, 30 August 21
68% OF U.S. COAL FLEET RETIREMENTS SINCE 2011 WERE PLANTS FUELED BY BITUMINOUS COAL - EIA
In 2011, the United States had 317.6 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired electric generation capacity. About 88.7 GW of that capacity was retired in the d ...
Friday, 27 August 21
ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT COAL'S MASSIVE RALLY AND NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK - CNBCTV18
Australia’s thermal coal at Newcastle Port, the benchmark for the vast Asian market, has surged over 100 percent this year to trade above $16 ...
Friday, 27 August 21
THE ECONOMICS OF INDONESIA’S DIESEL POWER PLANT TO GAS CONVERSION PLAN ARE PROBLEMATIC - IEEFA
Deploying new small-scale LNG is an uphill battle for PGN
Indonesian gas is currently in a precarious position, where the government needs to ...
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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