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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 20 August 21
ARE WE LOOKING AT THE NEXT DRY BULK SUPER CYCLE? IS IT EVEN A CYCLE? - BIMCO
Throughout the first half of the year, talk of a new dry bulk super cycle has been on many lips as commodity prices have soared to multi-year highs ...
Friday, 20 August 21
BIMCO'S SHIPPING NUMBER OF THE WEEK: CHINESE IRON ORE IMPORTS FALL TO 14-MONTH LOW IN JULY - PETER SAND
Chinese iron ore imports fell to 88.5 million tonnes in July, the lowest level since May 2020. The fall in July means that accumulated imports are ...
Friday, 20 August 21
SOARING DEMAND FOR THE WORLD’S LEAST-LIKED COMMODITY SEES THERMAL COAL PRICES JUMP 106% THIS YEAR - CNBC
Soaring electricity demand, infrastructure woes and a surge in global gas prices have triggered an extraordinary rally for the world’s least ...
Friday, 20 August 21
CHINA’S IRON ORE IMPORTS CONTRACTED YEAR-ON-YEAR BY 2% IN 2018 AND GREW YEAR-ON-YEAR BY ONLY 1% IN 2019 - COMMODORE RESEARCH
Examining the last ten years of China’s crude steel output and iron ore imports shows that China’s iron ore imports have stayed r ...
Friday, 13 August 21
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORTS TO JAPAN DECLINED BY -26.3% YOY TO 11.9 MLN TONNES IN THE FIRST 7 MONTHS OF 2021; STILL THE SECOND LARGEST SOURCE FOR JAPAN’S COAL IMPORTS IS INDONESIA - BANCHERO COSTA
2020 proved to be a truly terrible year for global seaborne coal trade. Total global loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12.7% year-on-yea ...
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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