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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 12 August 21
ONLY 3 VLCCS SOLD FOR DEMOLITION IN 2021 AS SECONDHAND PRICES TEMPT - BIMCO
During the first seven months of 2021, only three actively trading Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) have been sold for demolition. The current mar ...
Wednesday, 11 August 21
U.S: EIA EXPECTS COAL EXPORTS TO TOTAL 90 MMST IN 2021, 30% INCREASE FROM 2020
Coal production in EIA's forecast totals 607 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, an increase of 13% over 2020.
EIA is also ...
Wednesday, 11 August 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Energy is at the core of the global climate dialogue as the climate challenge is essentially an energy challenge. Policy experts around the world a ...
Tuesday, 10 August 21
34 INDONESIAN COAL COMPANIES TEMPORARILY BANNED FOR COAL EXPORTS
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has imposed sanctions in the form of a coal export ban for 34 coal companies as reported by CNB ...
Monday, 09 August 21
AIIB MAY OFFICIALLY END COAL FINANCING IN 2022 - CHINA DAILY
The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank may officially rule out coal projects if it updates its energy strategy next year, after shunning funding ...
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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