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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 09 August 21
CHINA COAL INVENTORY THINS AMID PEAK POWER DEMAND- STATE MEDIA : REUTERS
China’s coal inventories have dropped to near historic lows since August due to peak summer electricity demand and transportation bottlenecks ...
Wednesday, 04 August 21
THE INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SURGED TO A FRESH RECORD HIGH OF USD 130.99 A TON IN AUGUST 2021
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Wednesday, 04 August 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
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Sunday, 01 August 21
SEABORNE HARD COAL TRADE IN 2020 DECREASED BY 149 MILLION MT, OR 12.1%, TO 1,083 MILLION MT - GERMAN COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
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Wednesday, 28 July 21
IN THE PHILIPPINES, COAL’S DEMISE MAKES WAY FOR A RENEWABLE ENERGY BOOM - IEEFA
Imported gas lock-in could undermine the economic benefits of a clean energy transition
The Philippines’ energy sector is on t ...
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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