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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 15 July 21
U.S. FOSSIL FUEL CONSUMPTION FELL BY 9% IN 2020, THE LOWEST LEVEL IN NEARLY 30 YEARS - EIA
U.S. fossil fuel consumption fell by 9% in 2020, the lowest level in nearly 30 years
In 2020, total consumption of fossil fuels in t ...
Thursday, 15 July 21
IN 2020, U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FELL TO ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 1965 - EIA
U.S. coal production totaled 535 million short tons (MMst) in 2020, a 24% decrease from the 706 MMst mined in 2019 and the lowest level of coal pro ...
Wednesday, 14 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, the world bank recorded the strongest post-recession global growth in 80 years, but emerging and de ...
Tuesday, 13 July 21
JAPAN STILL SEEKING TO EXPLOIT COAL POWER LOOPHOLES - IEEFA
JBIC wants to continue burdening developing nations with its expensive coal-fired power technology
Japan is continuing to push its expensive c ...
Sunday, 11 July 21
COAL SHOWS ITS STAYING POWER AS ECONOMIES BOUNCE BACK - THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
Coal use is surging in some of the world’s largest economies as electricity demand rebounds from the pandemic, illustrating the challenges to ...
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- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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