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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 11 July 21
ROBUST CHINA COAL DEMAND AMID AUSTRALIA IMPORT BAN FUELS PRICE RALLY - REUTERS
Seaborne coal has become a quiet winner among energy commodities, lacking the attention of higher-profile crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) ...
Saturday, 10 July 21
OVERESTIMATED LCOES OF COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS CREATE A FINANCIAL BUBBLE - IEEFA
Massive stranded asset risk detrimentally affects the financial and power distribution
India’s future coal-fired power project pipeline ...
Friday, 09 July 21
EIA FORECASTS COAL’S GENERATION SHARE IN U.S TO RISE FROM 20% IN 2020 TO 24% THIS YEAR BUT TO FALL TO 22% NEXT YEAR
The July Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) of EIA remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty related to the ongoing economic recovery from ...
Friday, 09 July 21
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. INVITES BIDS FOR 1.86 MILLION TONS OF COAL OF 5600 & 4000 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 280,000 – 300,000 MT of Min. ...
Friday, 09 July 21
CAN WE EXPECT AFFORDABLE POWER SUPPLY BY REPLACING COAL BASED POWER WITH LNG? - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Bangladesh government’s recent decision to cancel the contracts for 10 coal fired power plants in late June 2021 has invited interest in the ...
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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