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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 08 July 21
STRONGEST HALF YEAR FOR SHIPPING MARKETS SINCE 2008 - CLARKSONS
A year on from peak trade disruption, we update our half year report for the shipping industry profiling a strong recovery and some exceptional ind ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES TO 112 MONTHS HIGH IN JULY 2021; 121.15% HIGHER COMPARED TO THAT IN JULY 2020 PRICE
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for July 2021 fixed at US$ 115.35 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal price referenc ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTS FELL BY 37% YOY IN 1Q21 DUE TO ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Chinese coal imports declined by 25% yoy in 5M21as a result of both restrictions on Australian coal and the high base in 2020. Import volume in Jan ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIAN 4,200 INDEX HAS ALSO INCREASED TO OVER USD50 PER TONNE SINCE MAY THIS YEAR REFLECTING STRONG CHINESE IMPORT DEMAND - FITCH RATINGS
Price Surge Since March
APAC thermal coal has resumed its price surge since March this year. The benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade c ...
Thursday, 01 July 21
WHY INDIA’S SOLAR POWER TARIFFS ARE CLIMBING AFTER HITTING RECORD LOWS LAST YEAR - IEEFA
What’s behind the recent increase?
Solar tariffs are deflationary. Prices have fallen by 75% in seven years in India, and in 2 ...
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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