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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 30 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The strong freight performance since the beginning of year has continued for the dry bulk market with earnings being at the highest level in over a ...
Monday, 28 June 21
MINISTRY OF ENERGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES OF INDONESIA THREATENS TO REVOKE 2,350 MINING BUSINESS PERMITS
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources said that the revocation of mining business permits was in accordance with President Jokowi's inst ...
Sunday, 27 June 21
INDONESIA'S STATE-OWNED UTILITY PLN'S 2060 NET ZERO AMBITION NOT WITHOUT FLAWS AND GAPS - IEEFA
Indonesia on the right emissions reduction pathway but same old coal stories persist
Recent announcements by Indonesia’s state-owned uti ...
Saturday, 26 June 21
COAL PRICES HIT DECADE HIGH DESPITE EFFORTS TO WEAN THE WORLD OFF CARBON - WSJ
Rebounding electricity usage and scanty rainfall in China have added fuel to the rally
Coal prices have climbed to their highest lev ...
Saturday, 26 June 21
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 480,000 MT OF COAL PER ANNUM
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for total 480,000 MT of NCV 1 Min. 5,600 (Spec 1) /Min. 5,0 ...
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Planning Commission, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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