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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 14 June 21
'WISHFUL THINKING': WHY CHINA NEEDS AUSTRALIAN IRON ORE FOR 'MANY YEARS' TO COME - YAHOO FINANCE AU
A “wintry period”.
That’s what’s expected to happen to Australia’s economy “when” China st ...
Sunday, 13 June 21
COAL AND LNG’S SURGE IN ASIA PLAYS INTO RENEWABLE ENERGY HANDS - REUTERS
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) and thermal coal prices in Asia have been roaring ahead in recent months amid strong demand, but while welcome news for ...
Friday, 11 June 21
5 REASONS GLOBAL SHIPPING COSTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE - ING
No short-term relief
Shipping costs have been growing strongly since the autumn of 2020, but the first months of this year have seen a new surg ...
Friday, 11 June 21
ASIA COAL PRICES SURGE, BUT CHINA-AUSTRALIA DISPUTE MEANS RALLY IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
Thermal coal prices across Asia have surged to multi-year highs amid strong demand and some supply constraints, but some types of the fuel have don ...
Thursday, 10 June 21
INDONESIA COAL EARNINGS RECOVERY TO SLOW AFTER STRONG 1Q - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the recovery in operating and financial performance of Indonesian coal miners and coal contractors to slow during rest of 202 ...
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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