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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 10 June 21
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO TOTAL 600 MMST IN 2021, 11% MORE THAN IN 2020 - EIA
EIA expects U.S. coal production to total 600 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, which is 61 MMst (11%) more than in 2020.
The increase is dri ...
Wednesday, 09 June 21
SHIPTEK INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE & AWARDS 2021
The In-Person Maritime Event
SHIPTEK INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE & AWARDS 2021
culminates successfully in Dubai
Press Release: ...
Wednesday, 09 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
“Counter cyclical investments.” usually take place by investing in a “bad” market at the point that ensures that the acquir ...
Saturday, 05 June 21
KOMIPO INVITED 5600 NAR COAL OFFERS FOR THREE YEARS SUPPLY; 520,000 MT PER YEAR
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) has issued an international tender for total 1,560,000 MT of Bituminous Coal to be used a ...
Saturday, 05 June 21
IT'S TIME FOR THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION TO CHAMPION RENEWABLE ENERGY IN THE PHILIPPINES, NOT NUCLEAR OR FOSSIL GAS - IEEFA
Fossil gas and nuclear investments risk locking in costly, outdated infrastructure for the long-term
The United States has spent the ...
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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