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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 01 June 21
BUMA PRODUCED 11.4 MILLION TONNES OF COAL IN 4Q 2020, 5% LOWER COMPARED TO 12.2 MILLION TONNES IN 4Q 2019
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. presents its newsletter with consolidated financial and operating results that include its primary and wholly-owne ...
Sunday, 30 May 21
PAKISTAN IS PLANNING TO END COAL IMPORTS, WORSENING OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH AFRICAN COAL - IEEFA
The growing and irreversible risks being faced by South African coal exporters
As Thungela Resources’ CEO attempts to talk up ...
Sunday, 30 May 21
G7 COAL FINANCE EXIT AND WHY IT MATTERS FOR INDIA - IEEFA
While India doesn’t rely on export credit finance to fund new coal plants, there are material implications
The commitment by the Group o ...
Saturday, 29 May 21
SKULD’S IMO 2020 SULPHUR CAP EXPERIENCE
More than a year has passed since the International Maritime Organization (IMO) mandate for the 0.50% sulphur cap for marine fuel (MARPOL Annex VI) ...
Thursday, 27 May 21
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR 1.56 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) has issued an international tender for total 1,560,000 MT of Bituminous Coal to be used a ...
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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