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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 25 May 21
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 870,000 MT OF MIN 5300 NCV COAL FOR 2021 TO 2023.
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for total 870,000 MT of Min 5,300 kcal/kg NCV coal for Augu ...
Tuesday, 25 May 21
CHINA’S COAL OUTPUT RISES IN FIRST FOUR MONTHS - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose 11.1 percent year on year to 1.29 billion tonnes in the first four months of 2021, official data showed.
&nb ...
Tuesday, 25 May 21
MARINE SHIPPERS BULK UP: ANOTHER GAME OF CHICKEN IN THE WORKS? - THE KOREA TIMES
Global shipping companies have been placing orders for large ships, with many anticipating further increased competition within the next three year ...
Friday, 21 May 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The dry bulk market’s counter seasonal surge so far into the first half of the year -in a sort of 2010 manner - and Capesize’s recent r ...
Wednesday, 12 May 21
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO INCREASE BY 43 MMST IN 2021 TOTAL 582 MILLION SHORT TONS - EIA
U.S. energy Information Administration expects U.S. coal production to total 582 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 43 MMst (8%) more than in 2020. ...
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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