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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 12 May 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Tanker S&P is finally back!
For an extended period, Dry bulk & Wet market rates have been diverging, with the SnP deals on each sect ...
Monday, 10 May 21
PAKISTAN: COAL GASIFICATION AND LIQUEFACTION HARMFUL TO ECONOMY - IEEFA
There is no second life for coal
Pakistan’s intention to use coal for power production through gasification and liquefaction technologie ...
Sunday, 09 May 21
HERE'S WHY INVESTORS ARE POURING MONEY INTO COAL, DESPITE ITS BLEAK FUTURE - FORBES
Coal stocks have surged this year – along with the wider energy sector – but experts warn these are likely short-term gains for an indu ...
Sunday, 09 May 21
MAYBANK TO STOP COAL FINANCING - BERNAMA
Malayan Banking Bhd (Maybank) will stop financing new coal activities as part of its sustainable agenda.
Currently, coal financing m ...
Saturday, 08 May 21
LNG-TO-POWER INVESTORS IN THE PHILIPPINES RISK EXPOSURE TO $14 BILLION IN STRANDED ASSETS - IEEFA
High regulatory and financial uncertainty in the Philippines market
The race to develop liquified natural gas (LNG) facilities in th ...
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- Australian Coal Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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