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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop ...
Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA'S POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-PANDEMIC LEVELS; RENEWABLES TO DRIVE DEVELOPMENT - FITCH RATINGS
China's power consumption exceeded the pre-Covid-19 levels in 1Q21 due to the country's fast economic recovery, with strong output from the ...
Wednesday, 26 May 21
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE FOR MAY 2021 SETTLES AT US$ 89.74 PER TON
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for May 2021 settles at US$ 89.74 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal pric ...
Wednesday, 26 May 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Last year crude tankers’ newbuilding contracting activity was devastated by the economic effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and the cloud of un ...
Wednesday, 26 May 21
NEW POWER AND ENERGY MASTER PLAN MUST BE DESIGNED IN BANGLADESH'S BEST INTERESTS, NOT JAPAN'S - IEEFA
JICA must deliver a low or zero emissions plan as promised, not fund Matarbari 2 coal plant
Clear understandings from the Bangladesh ...
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Coal Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- White Energy Company Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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