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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 04 June 21
NEW COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS IN INDIA WILL BE ECONOMICALLY UNVIABLE - IEEFA
Coal capacity additions face major stranded asset risk
Much of India’s 33 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired power capacity currently under co ...
Thursday, 03 June 21
JUNE HBA IS HITTING ABOVE $100 AND SETTLED AT ITS HIGHEST SINCE OCTOBER 2020
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for June 2021 settles at US$ 100.33 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal pr ...
Wednesday, 02 June 21
INDONESIA RV WAS DOWN TO LOW/MID $20,000S DAY FOR PANAMAX/KAMSARMAX WITH DELIVERY S CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
Panamax
A softening week in the Pacific basin with rates under a downward pressure mainly caused by the oversupply of tonnage in the area, said ...
Wednesday, 02 June 21
EUROPEAN UNION'S IRON ORE IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
The European Union (27) is currently the fourth largest importer of iron ore in the world, after China, Japan, and South Korea.
Euro ...
Tuesday, 01 June 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.02 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 160.06 points Monday, down 0.02 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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