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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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- The University of Queensland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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