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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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