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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 25 March 21
'OMNIBUS LAW' REGULATION ON INDONESIA’S ENERGY AND MINING SECTORS TO BOOST COAL PROCESSING BUT ALSO RAISES QUESTIONS - ABNR
February 2021 saw the issuance of a raft of new government regulations to give effect to the reformist Job Creation Law (colloquially known as the ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
PROPOSED SWITCH FROM COAL TO LNG THREATENS RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT IN ASIA - IEEFA
Renewables offer an ever cheaper, financially sustainable and energy secure alternative, better able to support developing nations
A ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
MAJOR INVESTMENT ADVISORS BLACKROCK AND MEKETA PROVIDE A FIDUCIARY PATH THROUGH THE ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
BlackRock and Meketa say divestment from fossil fuels improves, not weakens, investment returns
Two major financial management firms ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
EUROPE PASSES MILESTONE WITH HALF OF COAL PLANTS CLOSED OR SET TO RETIRE BY 2030 - EURACTIV
Half of Europe’s 324 coal-fueled power plants have either closed or announced a retirement date before 2030, it emerged on Monday (22 March) ...
Wednesday, 24 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Since the start of the pandemic, the shipping industry has efficiently responded to ensure the continuity of operations and hence the security of s ...
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
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