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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 23 March 21
LOWER WHOLESALE PRICES PUT PRESSURE ON AUSTRALIAN ENERGY RETAILERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the low wholesale energy prices in the Australian National Energy Market to persist through to 2022, which will affect electr ...
Tuesday, 23 March 21
SCRUBBER-FITTED SHIPS NEARLY DOUBLE AS FUEL SPREAD SETTLES AT $118 PER MT - PETER SAND
As the lion’s share of the world fleet replaced high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) with low-sulphur fuel oil (LFSO) as a mean of propulsion to be c ...
Tuesday, 23 March 21
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT EDGES UP IN FIRST TWO MONTHS - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose 25 percent year on year to 620 million tonnes in the first two months of 2021, official data showed.
...
Wednesday, 17 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Shipping market players are familiar with the inverse correlation between the freight market and demolition activity i.e. when the market picks up ...
Friday, 12 March 21
INDIA SHOULD FOCUS ON REDUCING COAL POWER GENERATION INSTEAD OF CAPACITY - IEEFA
Nearly half of existing coal power in India is more expensive than new renewable power
To get to its ambitious climate targets, Indi ...
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The University of Queensland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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