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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 07 April 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the end of the catholic easter, during which the majority of shipping market participants were on holidays, it is interesting to note a f ...
Wednesday, 07 April 21
COAL USED TO GENERATE ELECTRIC POWER IN U.S. WILL INCREASE BY 13 PERCENT TO 495 MMST IN 2021 - EIA
EIA expects U.S. coal production to total 585 MMst in 2021, 46 MMst (9%) more than in 2020. In 2022, EIA expects coal production to grow by an addi ...
Wednesday, 31 March 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.12 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 139.03 points Monday, up 0.12 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Wednesday, 31 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Over the past week, the biggest story has been the blockage of the Suez Canal, as a result of the grounding of the container ship Ever Given. At th ...
Monday, 29 March 21
MOODY'S: OUTLOOK FOR GLOBAL METALS AND MINING INDUSTRY TURNS POSITIVE ON HIGHER EBITDA IN PANDEMIC'S WAKE
- Demand for steel, iron ore and copper will rise, while aluminum, nickel and zinc will remain in surplus
- EBITDA is expected to ...
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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