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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 26 August 21
INDIA IMPORTED 17.06 MLN TONNES OF LPG IN 2020; UP 11.5% Y-O-Y
Global LPG trade remained fairly positive in 2020, despite the global economic impact from COVID-19, and surged strongly in the first half of 2021. ...
Thursday, 26 August 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
24th of August 2021, the Baltic Dry Index reached 4,201, a YTD high and the highest since May 2010.
Cape 5TC daily average @ 51,472
...
Tuesday, 24 August 21
COAL PRICE RALLY TO PRESSURE CHINESE POWER GENCOS’ MARGINS FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the pressure on Chinese power generation companies’ (gencos) profit from the recent coal price surge to weaken their cr ...
Tuesday, 24 August 21
TIGHT POWER SUPPLY IN CHINA AMID STRONG DEMAND, HIGH COAL PRICES - FITCH RATINGS
China experienced tight power supply in 1H21 on stronger than expected power demand as economic activity continued to recover, Fitch Ratings says i ...
Monday, 23 August 21
CHINESE COAL PRODUCTION RISES 4.9 PCT IN 1ST 7 MONTHS OF 2021 - NBS
Official figures demonstrated that the Chinese raw coal production surged 4.9 percent annually to 2.26 billion tonnes in the January-July period of ...
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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