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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 11 September 21
RECORD CHINESE COAL FUTURES SIGNAL NEED TO BOOST OUTPUT - REUTERS
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Saturday, 11 September 21
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Wednesday, 08 September 21
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Wednesday, 08 September 21
COAL IS STILL KING; INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE ABOVE $150 FOR FIRST TIME IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Coal Price Reference rose dramatically from US$ 127.05 in February 2011, to a peak of US$ 150.03 in September 2021, be ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Last August was extremely hot in the dry bulk market with rates rising at levels that we have years to witness. The dry bulk index exceeded the 4,0 ...
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
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- Australian Coal Association
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The University of Queensland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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