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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 27 September 21
CHINESE COAL FIRMS MEET TO ADDRESS WINTER SUPPLY CHALLENGES - CNBC
Major Chinese coal producers are trying to resolve supply shortages and curb price rises as the country’s winter consumption peak approaches, ...
Saturday, 25 September 21
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Thursday, 23 September 21
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In China’s coal sector that has been marred recently by price surges, regional authorities and related enterprises should ensure the fuel con ...
Thursday, 23 September 21
BALTIC INDEX HITS 12-YEAR PEAK ON FIRMER VESSELS RATES - REUTERS
The Baltic Exchange’s main dry bulk sea freight index rose for a fourth straight session on Wednesday to a 12-year high, buoyed by higher rat ...
Thursday, 23 September 21
RECORD-HIGH GAS PRICES AFFECT MANY EUROPEAN CORPORATE SECTORS - FITCH RATINGS
Record-high natural gas prices are putting pressure on supply chains of many European corporate sectors, including non-integrated energy suppliers, ...
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The University of Queensland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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