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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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