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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 14 October 21
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MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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