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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 16 October 21
COAL IS 'KING' AS GAS PRICES SOAR, TOTAL CEO SAYS - AND IT’S BACKFIRING ON CLEANER ENERGY GOALS - CNBC
Surging natural gas prices have led to a jump in coal use, with plants in Europe and Asia firing back up as temperatures decline and the world grap ...
Saturday, 16 October 21
VIETNAM'S COAL-FIRED POWER MAY DOUBLE BY 2030 UNDER DRAFT ENERGY PLAN - REUTERS
Vietnam may double the amount of coal-fired electric generation it installs by 2030 under a draft power development plan submitted to the prime min ...
Friday, 15 October 21
AUSTRALIA'S WHITEHAVEN EXPECTS TO BE DEBT-FREE NEXT YEAR AS COAL PRICES SOAR - REUTERS
Australia’s Whitehaven Coal WHC.AX said on Thursday it expects to be debt-free by early 2022, as thermal coal prices surge to record highs on ...
Friday, 15 October 21
WINTER CHILL KEEPS CHINA'S COAL PRICES HIGH, POWER CRUNCH STOKES INFLATION - REUTERS
China coal prices held near record highs on Thursday as cold weather swept into the country’s north and power plants stocked up on the fuel t ...
Friday, 15 October 21
GLOBAL STEEL DEMAND GROWTH DOWNGRADED FOR 2021 DUE TO CHINA - WORLD STEEL ASSOCIATION
The World Steel Association (worldsteel) today released an update of its Short Range Outlook (SRO) for 2021 and 2022. worldsteel forecasts that ste ...
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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