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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 22 October 21
HARD COAL REMAINS AN IMPORTANT FACTOR FOR SECURITY OF SUPPLY - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION, GERMANY
- Hard coal remains an important factor for security of supply
- Increase of around 35% in hard-coal-fired power generation in the first three ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA'S COAL SHORTAGE TO EASE IN COMING MONTHS, INDUSTRY BODY SAYS - REUTERS
China’s coal shortage will likely ease in coming months, with domestic production and imports already showing signs of picking up, a coal ind ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA'S RAW COAL OUTPUT DROPS IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output dropped 0.9 percent year on year to 330 million tonnes last month, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
OVER-RELIANCE ON COAL IN OUR POWER MIX HURTING INDIA - LIVEMINT
In spite of the renewables push, coal still accounts for about 50% of India’s installed power capacity. That means a simultaneous demand and ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA COAL HITS RECORD HIGH AMID TIGHT SUPPLIES - REUTERS
China coal prices hit a record high on Tuesday buoyed by a widening power crunch and cold weather despite Beijing’s efforts to bolster supply ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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