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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 25 October 21
CHINA VOWS TO SEVERELY PUNISH MARKET VIOLATIONS AMID LOW COAL FUTURES PRICES - GLOBAL TIMES
Domestic coal futures had plunged for three consecutive trading days after the government vowed to crack down on soaring prices, and China’s ...
Monday, 25 October 21
FARMERS MAY JOIN THE COAL COMMODITY MARKET TO REDUCE RISKS - GLOBAL TIMES
A recent trip to by the Global Times to East China’s Shandong Province to get a glimpse of China’s coal supply chain revealed a surpris ...
Monday, 25 October 21
CHINA COAL PRICES MARK WORST WEEK SINCE MAY ON GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures plunged on Friday and turned in their worst week in five months, following Beijing’s strongest interventio ...
Friday, 22 October 21
THE BIG PICTURE: ENERGY MARKETS - BREAK WAVE ADVISORS
The shipping markets have been pulled further into wild markets of coal and other energy sources. Given how nebulous this sector is, it’s alw ...
Friday, 22 October 21
CHINA WANTS TO COOL COAL PRICES. SIMILAR MOVES FOR METALS, CRUDE FAILED - REUTERS
China’s latest attempt to lower runaway commodity prices, this time for thermal coal, is likely to follow a familiar pattern of initial succe ...
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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