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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 30 October 21
CHINA'S COAL PRICES SEE BIGGEST WEEKLY FALL IN MORE THAN 5 YEARS - REUTERS
China’s coal futures prices saw their biggest fall in more than five years after the powerful state planner said there is still room to adjus ...
Saturday, 30 October 21
G-20 LEADERS PREPARE STATEMENT TO STOP FUNDING FOREIGN COAL PLANTS - BLOOMBERG
Leaders of the Group of 20 wealthy economies are preparing to pledge to stop funding foreign coal-fired plants, but are still wrangling over climat ...
Friday, 29 October 21
APAC THERMAL COAL SUPPLY TO REMAIN TIGHT AS WINTER LOOMS - FITCH RATINGS
APAC thermal coal prices have surged, hitting historically high levels. The benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade coal reached USD228/tonne in mid ...
Thursday, 28 October 21
CANADA BAN ON SHIPPING COAL WOULD EQUAL SCRAPPING AS MANY AS 3 MILLION CARS - IEEFA
Canada ban on shipping coal would equal scrapping as many as 3 million cars
Change in Canadian policy could have major implications ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
CHINA'S COAL-RICH SHANXI BEEFS UP COAL PRODUCTION - XINHUA
Major coal producers in north China’s Shanxi Province, a leading coal-producing region of the country, have beefed up production to ensure en ...
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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